Red alert in Texas? Trump’s approval rating goes negative as Democrats eye Senate flip

President Donald Trump's approval rating in Texas has gone negative for the first time in his second term. Texas is usually a very conservative state and hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1976.

Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats see the Texas Senate race as a chance to flip the seat in the 2026 midterms because recent polls show the race could become competitive, as per the Newsweek report.

Why Democrats want to win in Texas

Democrats will have to reclaim lost ground in states where Trump won emphatically, like Texas, to make the Senate blue again. Currently lagging behind the Republicans, with the later leading with a 58-47 majority. Democrats will look to claim the seats of Maine, which Republicans lost and North Carolina, which they won narrowly.


Since no other Republican senators in states where Trump barely won are up for reelection, Democrats must try to flip seats in big Trump-win states like Iowa, Florida, Ohio, or Texas to win Senate control, as stated by the Newsweek report.

What the polls say about Trump in Texas

The Texas Politics Project polled 1,331 registered voters in Texas from June 6 to June 16, 2025, with a margin of error of ±2.83%. The poll showed 44% of Texans strongly disapprove of Trump, 7% somewhat disapprove. So, a total of 51% disapprove.

Only 27% strongly approve of Trump and 17% somewhat approve, totaling 44% approval. 5% of Texans neither approve nor disapprove of Trump. Trump's approval in Texas has dropped from 52% in February 2025 to 47% in April 2025. Disapproval increased from 46% in April, as mentioned in the report by Newsweek.

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Despite this, Trump remains very popular among Texas Republicans, with 87% giving him positive marks. Texans narrowly approve Trump’s handling of border security by 51% to 41%.

Texans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy by 51% to 39%, which is his worst economic job rating in Texas so far. The poll results reflect a national trend: A recent Gallup poll found Trump’s net approval rating nationally is -17 points, as per Newsweek report.

Pollsters Jim Henson and Joshua Blank from Texas Politics Project said the 51% disapproval of Trump’s economic job performance is the worst they’ve seen in their polls across both of his terms.

In Trump’s first term, Texans mostly approved his economy handling, but in 2025, more disapprove than approve. Even among Texas Republicans, only 74% approve of Trump’s economic work now, down from 90% during his first term, as stated by the Newsweek report.

Nate Silver, a poll analyst, said Trump’s approval ratings are “all over the place” with some polls showing him as low as -21 net approval and others showing positive ratings around +7 to +10.

Despite the negative ratings, major election forecasters like the Cook Political Report still rate Texas Senate and governor races as “Solid Republican” for 2026. Trump's approval rating will be closely watched because it might show if Texas could become competitive in upcoming elections, according to a Newsweek report.

FAQs

Q1. Why is Trump’s approval falling in Texas?
More Texans dislike how he handles the economy and other issues.

Q2. Can Democrats flip Texas in 2026?
Yes, if Trump stays unpopular, Democrats might win a Senate seat.