Oil prices to touch $120? Oil price today surges after Iran strikes Saudi Aramco refinery, Brent jumps above $80 — will inflation and gasoline prices rise next?

Oil prices today surged more than 10%, with Brent crude jumping above $80 per barrel after Iran-linked strikes targeted a major Saudi oil facility. The attack on the Saudi Aramco-operated Ras Tanura refinery immediately triggered fears of crude oil supply disruption, sending global oil markets into high volatility. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed into the low $70s as traders reacted to geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

The spike in oil prices today reflects rising tension near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping chokepoint that handles nearly 20% of global petroleum supply. Markets are now asking a bigger question: could Brent crude rally toward $100 or even $120 per barrel if the conflict escalates? At the same time, consumers want to know whether gasoline prices and inflation will rise next.

Brent crude jumped 13% to $82 a barrel in early Monday trading, its highest level in 14 months. Within hours, shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply, insurance costs spiked, and global stock markets turned red.


Analysts are now modeling several scenarios. If refinery operations resume quickly and shipping flows stabilize, Brent crude could consolidate in the $80–$90 range. However, if tensions escalate or infrastructure damage proves significant, prices could move higher.

Global oil demand in 2026 exceeds 104 million barrels per day. Supply remains balanced but not excessive. OPEC+ holds spare production capacity, yet increasing output takes coordination and time. U.S. shale producers can ramp up drilling, but production growth does not happen overnight.

Why are oil prices rising today after the Saudi refinery strike?

The immediate driver behind the surge in oil prices today is the temporary shutdown of the Ras Tanura refinery, one of the largest oil processing and export hubs in Saudi Arabia. The facility processes roughly 550,000 barrels per day and supports significant export infrastructure.

When markets sense potential disruption at that scale, they move quickly. Traders build a “risk premium” into Brent crude and WTI crude futures. That premium reflects uncertainty, not confirmed supply collapse. However, energy markets price future risk instantly.

Saudi Arabia exports approximately 7 million barrels per day. Even minor delays in export flows can tighten global crude oil supply. Investors remember how past attacks on energy infrastructure triggered sharp price spikes. As a result, they respond aggressively to similar events.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. It connects the Persian Gulf to global markets and handles exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iran. Following the weekend’s military escalation, tanker traffic slowed dramatically. Marine tracking data showed vessels clustering on both sides of the strait, wary of attack and rising war-risk insurance premiums.

Two vessels were reportedly attacked near Oman and the UAE. Shipping giant Maersk announced it would halt transit through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, citing safety concerns. The International Maritime Organization urged extreme caution.

Even though the strait has not been formally declared closed, market participants are pricing in a de facto disruption. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that if the conflict extends beyond three weeks, Gulf oil producers could exhaust onshore storage capacity. Brent crude could then rise into the $100 to $120 per barrel range.

Iran alone exports roughly 1.6 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Any sustained disruption would force major importers to seek alternative supplies, tightening the global oil balance further.

Global stock markets fall as investors flee to safe havens

As oil prices surged, global stock markets dipped sharply. Europe saw broad-based losses. London’s FTSE 100 fell about 1%, while Germany’s DAX dropped 2.2%. France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB each lost more than 2%. Airline stocks were hit hardest. Shares of British Airways parent IAG fell nearly 10%, and easyJet dropped about 7%, reflecting concerns over higher jet fuel costs and regional flight cancellations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell nearly 2.4% before trimming losses. Australia’s ASX 200 initially plunged but later closed flat. U.S. futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street.

At the same time, gold — a classic safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises — climbed 2.5% to around $5,408 per ounce. Investors are clearly rotating into defensive assets while trimming exposure to risk-sensitive sectors.

OPEC+ production boost offers limited immediate relief

Before the conflict escalated, OPEC+ had already planned to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day in April. Member countries boosting production include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

However, additional output means little if export routes remain constrained. Roughly 343 million barrels of crude storage capacity exist across Gulf producers reliant on Hormuz. At current production rates, that equates to around 22 days of stranded output if exports cannot move freely. Even floating storage via tankers would only buy a few extra days.

This creates what energy consultants describe as a “dual supply shock.” Not only are current exports at risk, but spare capacity — typically used to stabilize prices — becomes inaccessible.

What higher oil prices mean for inflation and consumers

Higher crude oil prices feed directly into gasoline prices, transportation costs, and eventually grocery bills. Many consumers are already coping with elevated inflation. A sustained move above $90 or $100 per barrel would likely push global fuel prices significantly higher.

In the United States, WTI crude typically trades at a discount to Brent. Yet gasoline futures have already jumped more than 4%. European gas prices surged up to 28% in early trading, marking their biggest jump since August 2023. German year-ahead power contracts rose 3.6%, while French contracts gained over 1%.

This means the Iran war impact on the global economy could extend beyond oil markets into broader inflationary pressure, complicating central bank policy decisions.

Could oil hit $120 per barrel?

JPMorgan analysts highlight four key variables: the volume of physically disrupted barrels, the duration of disruption, the speed of replacement supply, and potential releases from strategic petroleum reserves.

Historical precedent adds context. Since 1979, regime changes in major oil-producing nations have triggered average oil price spikes of 76% from onset to peak. During the Iranian Revolution, prices rose from $13 to $34 per barrel within a few years.

If current disruptions last beyond three weeks and Gulf producers begin shutting in production, Brent crude could realistically trade between $100 and $120. However, if tanker traffic normalizes quickly, prices may stabilize below those extremes.

The oil prices surge is not just a commodity story. It is a global economic stress test. Energy markets are signaling risk. Stock markets are repricing growth expectations. Insurance premiums for shipping have already climbed from roughly $250,000 to $375,000 per voyage in high-risk zones.

In conclusion, oil prices surge headlines are not short-term noise. They reflect real constraints in global energy supply. With nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil passing through a single chokepoint, any instability in the Middle East carries immediate global consequences. Investors, policymakers, and consumers will be watching shipping lanes as closely as battle lines in the days ahead.

FAQs:

1: Why are oil prices rising today?

Brent crude surged 13% to $82 a barrel, its highest level in 14 months, after US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 15 million barrels per day — about 20% of global oil supply — move through that chokepoint. Even partial disruption tightens supply instantly. Traders are pricing in prolonged conflict risk and higher shipping insurance costs.

2: Will gas prices go up after the Iran conflict?

WTI crude jumped 8.6% to $72.79 in early trading, and gasoline futures climbed more than 4% in one session. Crude oil directly influences pump prices. If Brent holds near $80–$90, retail gasoline prices typically rise within days to weeks. A sustained move above $100 could push fuel costs sharply higher, adding fresh inflation pressure.

3: Could oil hit $100 or $120 per barrel?

JPMorgan estimates Brent could reach $100–$120 if disruptions last beyond three weeks and Gulf producers exhaust storage capacity. Gulf nations reliant on the Strait of Hormuz have roughly 343 million barrels of onshore storage — equal to about 22 days of output. If exports stall, production cuts become unavoidable. That scenario would tighten global supply fast.

4: How does the Strait of Hormuz affect the global economy?

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and major LNG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. When traffic slows, stock markets fall and energy prices spike. European gas prices have already jumped as much as 28% in one session. Higher oil raises transport, food, and manufacturing costs worldwide. The economic ripple effect is immediate and global.