Oil prices to play crucial role in US-Israel-Iran war? How are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia planning to hit back?

OPEC+ may consider a larger than planned output increase on Sunday, two sources close to talks said, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already ‌raised exports in ⁠anticipation of ⁠possible oil disruption from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran carried out on Saturday.

Eight members of the grouping of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - were already scheduled to meet on Sunday at 1100 GMT. Despite expectations oversupply would weigh on the market, oil prices have risen this year on fears that a conflict between Iran and the U.S. would disrupt ⁠Middle East ‌supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil LCOc1 hit $73 a barrel on Friday, the highest level since July.

Delegates earlier said the eight countries would likely ⁠agree to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day in ​oil output for April, as the group readies for summer ​demand, led by the U.S. driving season, and as crude prices had risen on expectations of a U.S. attack on Iran, which happened on Saturday.


An April increase would end a three-month pause in output hikes. The size of any larger hike has yet to be discussed, one of the sources said. Both sources declined to be identified by name. Bloomberg ‌News earlier reported that OPEC+ would consider a bigger hike, citing a delegate.

Oil Prices Output

Evidence has mounted that the ​biggest Middle East ​producers have already boosted exports ⁠as concern built that the U.S. would strike Iran, raising the risk of disruption of oil exports.

UAE oil producer Abu Dhabi is set to export more of its flagship Murban crude in April, two trade sources said on Friday. Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production and exports as part of the leading OPEC producer's contingency plan, sources told Reuters this week.

The eight OPEC+ members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April through December 2025, roughly 3 per cent of global demand, before pausing further increases for January to March 2026 due to seasonal weakness.