October 14 is the big day for Social Security’s 2027 COLA: What retirees need to know before the big announcement; will September inflation data shape your raise

The Social Security Administration will announce next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The COLA is the yearly increase meant to help benefits keep up with rising prices.

The announcement will come after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last inflation report the calculation needs.

How the COLA is set

The formula compares the average CPI-W for July, August and September with the average for the same three months a year earlier. CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers.


When inflation runs higher, the COLA is generally higher too. Prices for gas, health care and food keep rising, and the adjustment follows them.

The latest forecast is 3.5%

The advocacy group The Senior Citizen League forecasts a 3.5% COLA for 2027. That would be the highest in four years and the biggest since 2023. The 2026 adjustment was 2.8%, and the 2025 adjustment was 2.5%.

The forecast could still change once September’s inflation numbers come out.

At 3.5%, the average monthly benefit would rise by $67.90, from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98.

The adjustment applies to about 70 million people who receive traditional Social Security benefits, along with disability and survivor beneficiaries.

Medicare costs will take some of it back

Part of the increase will go to higher Medicare costs. The latest Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard Part B premium at $209.50 a month in 2027. That’s $6.60 more than the current $202.90.

Part B premiums are taken directly out of Social Security payments. For a person with the average benefit who pays the premium, the $6.60 increase would reduce the $67.90 raise to about $61.30.

The annual Part B deductible is projected to rise from $283 to about $292.

Prescription drug coverage under Medicare Part D is also expected to cost more. The standard deductible is projected to rise from $615 to $700. The out-of-pocket limit is projected to go from $2,100 to $2,400.