Obama crushes Trump in hypothetical 2028 matchup, new poll shows double-digit lead

Speculation about the 2028 U.S. presidential election is already swirling, even though it remains years away. A new poll has fueled debate by testing a matchup that, under current law, cannot happen. Still, the numbers reveal how voters feel about two of the most recognizable political figures of the modern era.

Former President Barack Obama now holds a clear advantage over President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2028 contest, according to recently released polling data, despite the fact that neither man is constitutionally eligible to run again, as per a report by Newsweek.

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Why Is a 2028 Matchup Even Being Discussed?

Talk of a Trump third term has circulated since the beginning of his second term last January. The idea has been encouraged by the president himself and some close allies, with “Trump 2028” merchandise appearing as early as 2025. As those discussions gained traction, some Democrats countered with speculation about a possible return by Barack Obama, who served two terms between 2009 and 2017.


The debate exists largely in theory. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution clearly limits presidents to two elected terms. Any change would require a constitutional amendment, a process involving overwhelming congressional and state approval.

What Does the New Poll Show?

A Research Co. poll conducted between January 13 and January 15 surveyed 1,002 adults on a hypothetical Obama–Trump matchup in 2028. The results showed Obama leading Trump by double digits, 44 percent to 33 percent, an 11-point margin, as per a report by Newsweek.

The poll also highlighted sharp demographic divides. Obama performed strongly among Latino voters at 57 percent and Black voters at 69 percent. Trump, meanwhile, led among white voters with 41 percent support and among Fox News viewers, where he received 55 percent. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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What Does the Constitution Say About Third Terms?

The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. To allow a former two-term president to run again, Congress would need to pass a constitutional amendment with a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification from three-fourths of U.S. states.

The poll suggests limited public appetite for such a change. Only 34 percent of respondents said they support allowing a president to serve three terms, while nearly 60 percent opposed the idea, as per a report by Newsweek.

How Are Lawmakers and Leaders Responding?

In January, California State Senator Tom Umberg introduced a bill aimed at ensuring that constitutionally ineligible candidates would be excluded from the state’s 2028 ballot. The proposal would allow the California secretary of state to request proof of eligibility and remove candidates who fail to meet constitutional requirements, as per a report by Newsweek.

Michelle Obama addressed the speculation directly during an appearance on the Call Her Daddy podcast. When asked about her husband running again, she said, “I hope not. I would actively work against that. I would be at home working against it.…I do believe that eight years is enough. And there are so many talented people out there—why would we keep going with the same people? How are we going to build young leaders if the same people keep doing it again and again and again?”

Trump, meanwhile, added fuel to the conversation with a January 22 post on Truth Social, writing: "RECORD NUMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE! SHOULD I TRY FOR A FOURTH TERM?"

Despite the chatter, there is no serious or coordinated effort in Congress to amend the Constitution. Attention is instead shifting toward the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats aim to gain seats while Republicans work to defend their House and Senate majorities, as per a report by Newsweek.

FAQs

Can Barack Obama or Donald Trump legally run in 2028?
No. The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms unless the Constitution is amended.

Is there momentum to change presidential term limits?
Currently, no. Most voters oppose the idea, and there is no broad congressional effort to amend the Constitution.