Nvidia earnings on deck today: $45B revenue target, Brown Shipley trims stake — can NVDA quiet AI bubble fears?

As Nvidia prepares to release its earnings today, all eyes are not only on the numbers but also on signals from big institutional investors. One such signal came when Brown Shipley, a UK-based wealth manager, disclosed selling 3,351 shares of Nvidia—worth about $18.5 million.

For a stock that has become the face of the AI boom, even a modest sell-off sparks debate: is this a routine portfolio adjustment or an early warning of fatigue in the AI trade?

Nvidia earnings today: $45B revenue target

Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results after U.S. markets close today, August 27, with investors bracing for one of the most closely watched earnings events of the year.


The stakes could not be higher: Wall Street will use Nvidia’s numbers to gauge whether the artificial intelligence rally still has legs, or if lofty expectations risk running ahead of reality.

Adding intrigue, UK-based wealth manager Brown Shipley disclosed it sold 3,351 Nvidia shares this week, worth about $18.5 million — a relatively small stake reduction, but one that landed just before earnings. With Nvidia’s valuation stretched and sentiment fragile, even small institutional moves are drawing attention.

Nvidia earning timing and expectations: what Wall Street is watching

Nvidia will release results for Q2 FY2026 after the closing bell today, with its earnings call scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.

• Revenue guidance: $44.1B–$45.9B (consensus: $45.8B, +52.4% YoY).
  
  
• Net income forecast: $23.2B (+39.6% YoY).
  
  
• Gross margins: recovery to ~71.8% expected, after plunging to 60.5% in Q1 due to China restrictions.
  
  
• Data center revenue: growth moderating to ~54% YoY (vs. 73% in Q1).
  
  
• Automotive/robotics: acceleration to ~80% YoY, powered by new AI-driven platforms.
  
  

Export restrictions on H20 chips remain a drag, though a new U.S. government arrangement allows Nvidia to resume sales into China by sharing 15% of revenues from certain AI chips.

Why does Brown Shipley’s Nvidia sale matter right before earnings?

For most investors, 3,351 shares may not sound like much. But when each Nvidia share trades north of $5,500, the total value is striking. The timing adds weight—coming just as Nvidia gears up for its quarterly report, a moment that often sets the tone for broader tech markets.

Portfolio managers like Brown Shipley typically trim positions either to lock in profits or reduce exposure to volatility ahead of major catalysts. Nvidia’s earnings are exactly that kind of event: high-reward, but equally high-risk if the company falls short of Wall Street’s towering expectations.

Q1 recap: a booming top line, but costly China restrictions

Last quarter, Nvidia delivered another blockbuster revenue print, but profits were dented by a $4.5B charge tied to new export licensing rules for China. Gross margins sank well below expectations to 60.5%.

Still, management painted a picture of unrelenting AI demand — from hyperscalers, cloud providers, and governments building “AI factories.” Nvidia also highlighted deeper partnerships across networking, healthcare, and robotics to broaden its moat.

Strategic roadmap: Blackwell today, Rubin tomorrow

Nvidia’s bullish long-term narrative rests on its aggressive product cadence. Production of Blackwell Ultra GPUs begins later this year, already sold out months in advance. Its next-generation Rubin architecture is slated for 2026, with Rubin Ultra superchips to follow in 2027.

The company’s “AI Factory” concept — full-stack systems where raw data enters and processed intelligence emerges — is central to its strategy. That framing resonates with governments and corporates looking to secure AI infrastructure at scale.

China, regulation, and geopolitical risks

China remains a wildcard. Officially, 13% of Nvidia’s FY2025 revenue came from the country, but actual exposure may be higher due to re-routed orders. The revenue-sharing deal with Washington could boost sales by over 10% if China demand rebounds, though the 15% levy trims some of that upside.

Longer term, geopolitical uncertainty and competition from alternative AI chips — including more efficient models from Chinese firms — pose risks to Nvidia’s dominant position.

Analyst sentiment: bullish but wary of valuation

According to LSEG data, 58 of 65 analysts still rate Nvidia a “buy” or “strong buy.” Just one calls it a “sell.” But enthusiasm has cooled slightly since Q1, with valuation the key sticking point: Nvidia trades at 33x forward earnings, a lofty multiple for a hardware company.

Price targets have nonetheless moved higher — from $163 after Q1 to $191 now — implying ~9% upside. The real test is whether tonight’s results justify those targets or force a rethink.

Technical picture: fragile momentum

Nvidia shares have doubled since spring, but momentum has wavered in August. The stock slipped below its 20-day moving average last week and faces resistance near $184. A strong report could break that ceiling toward $196. A miss, however, risks sending shares back toward $165 support.

A make-or-break moment for the AI rally?

Nvidia’s Q2 earnings aren’t just about one company. They’re a proxy for the entire artificial intelligence trade. If growth remains explosive, the AI bubble narrative will look premature. But if Nvidia shows cracks — in demand, margins, or guidance — the correction many fear could accelerate.