Nuclear weapons increasing as Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Iran conflict reignites the prospects of World War III

As Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in a bloody and bruising war and the Middle East teeters on the edge of a disastrous conflict with nuclear undertones, the world is rapidly spiralling towards a potential World War III. Russia is the world's most heavily nuclear armed power while Israel, which has opened multiple fronts in the Middle East with the latest target being Iran, is a covert nuke state.

Apart from Russia and Israel, there are seven other nuclear-armed countries - the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). According to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, all the nine nations have gone ahead with modernization of their nuclear program in 2024. Some of the countries have added a large number of nukes including upgrading of the existing weapons along with developing newer and more lethal versions.

Nuclear warheads with each country

The report states that in January 2025, there were an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads in possession of the nine countries mentioned above with about 9,614 of them with the militaries for use. The nuclear armed countries had 3,912 nuclear weapons deployed for immediate use on their missiles and combat aircraft, while the remaining were stored away.


Russia and the US have the maximum number of deployed nuclear weapons. The SIPRI report claims that a small number of the deployed warheads may also belong to China. A total of about 2,100 warheads are mounted on missiles for immediate firing.

While the world saw Russia and the US retiring and dismantling a large number of nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the trend seems to be reversing with new weapons being developed and deployed at a rapid pace which is likely to quicken in the coming years.
World nuclear forces, January 2025

	Deployed	Stored	Military Stockpile	Retired	Total
USA	1770	1930	3700	1477	5177
Russia	1718	2591	4309	1150	5459
UK	120	105	225	-	225
France	280	10	290	-	290
China	24	576	600	-	600
India	-	180	180	-	180
Pakistan	-	170	170	-	170
North Korea	-	50	50	-	50
Israel	-	90	90	-	90

"The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end. Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements," noted Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

Russia and the US had in 2010 entered into the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) which expires in February 2026. As the former in involved in a conflict with Ukraine and the US tied up behind the scenes in both the Europe and Middle East wars, the prospects of the treaty getting an extension or a new deal is extremely bleak.

As part of their modernization program, both sides could rearm more missiles with multiple warheads as well as reactivate silos from which nukes were pulled out earlier. New non-strategic nuclear weapons by both and the development of new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) like Sarmat by Russia could result in increase in the nukes.

China's nukes

China's rapid development of nuclear weapons could force the US to adopt a tit-for-tat approach bring the memories of the Cold War era back.

SIPRI estimates that China, the world's third largest nuclear power with 600 warheads, is growing its arsenal at rapid pace. . The country is estimated to have added 200 warheads since 2023. China has six major nuclear missile silos spread across the cold deserts in its north and mountains of the east with an estimated capacity of 350 ICBMs.

Its pace of ICBM deployment is accelerating, and China could match Russia and the US in deploying nuke-armed missiles before the end of 2030. Painting a rather alarming picture, SIPRI reports that China can have 1,500 warheads by 2035, still only about one third of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles.

Europe prepares for nuclear war

Even since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the United Kingdom and France have advocated for a larger nuclear weapon stockpile with the former also speaking about expanding its nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe if the US decides to pull back as its President Donald Trump has said on multiple occasions.

The UK's Integrated Review Refresh in 2023 speaks for increasing the number of warheads. The country may go for four more nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) along with maintaining the continuous at-sea nuclear deterrence, and delivering ‘all the needed upgrades’.

Similarly, France is going ahead with developing a third-generation SSBN and a new air-launched cruise missile. It is also upgrading its existing arsenal and delivery systems.

India now has 180 nuclear warhead, at least 10 more than Pakistan. India is developing new canisterized missiles with Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. Pakistan, too, has been with China and North Korea's help modernizing its nuclear warheads.

‘The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,’ said Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at FAS. ‘This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons.’

North Korea has been developing its nuclear warheads as well as missiles with longer range to target the US mainland. The country is estimated to have 50 warheads with SIPRI reporting enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more nukes as well as on course to develop a tactical nuclear weapon.

Israel has never admitted openly to having nuclear weapons but is likely to be in possession of 90 warheads. It is upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona while in 2024 the country also test-fired a missile propulsion system that could be related to its Jericho family of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.