NASA shocker: Asteroid feared to strike Earth now on course to obliterate the Moon, scientists warn

NASA researchers have updated their estimates for asteroid 2024 YR4, which was previously thought to hit Earth. New estimates suggest that the space rock might crash into the Moon instead.

Is the asteroid still a threat?

Although the danger to Earth has been averted, scientists are still monitoring the path of the asteroid, as there is still concern about a potential lunar impact. NASA has provided an update on the location and predictions of a concerning asteroid that is speeding through the universe.

On December 22, 2032, space rock 2024 YR4 was first estimated to have a 3.1% chance of striking Earth.

How is NASA tracking 2024 YR4?

However, scientists think there may be a possibility of impact on the lunar surface because of fresh observations made by NASA's potent James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as quoted in a report by The Daily Star.

In a research memo, an international team of astronomers stated, "An impact on Earth by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032, has now been ruled out, but it still has a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time.

What happens if it hits the Moon?

In May 2025, JWST will make more observations of 2024 YR4, they add, which will "primarily help refine the orbital and thermal properties" of the asteroid.

As scientists feared, a terrifying visualization had depicted what might occur if the asteroid struck Earth in 2032. Eight megatons of TNT's worth of energy could be released if the asteroid were to strike Earth, destroying an area the size of Washington, D.C, as quoted in a report by The Daily Star.

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The atomic bomb unleashed on Hiroshima had a yield of about 15 kilotons (0.015 megatons), 500 times less powerful than an 8-megaton explosion.

In February, scientists increased the likelihood that the football-sized space asteroid would strike Earth in 2032, but then they cut them again.

However, tens of other objects have come closer to Earth than the Moon since 2024 YR4 was first observed using a telescope in Chile two months ago, a mathematically significant near-miss.

According to NASA's Near Earth Object tracker, they include 2025 BT4, which passed as close as 12,0253km six days prior, and 2025 BP6, which missed Earth by just 9,712km on January 26.

FAQs

Is there still a chance the asteroid will hit Earth?
No, NASA has ruled out an Earth impact in 2032, but the asteroid may strike the Moon instead.

How powerful would an asteroid's impact be?
If it had hit Earth, it could have emitted energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, more than 500 times the Hiroshima bomb.