Israel, hit hard by Iran, to resume war against the Islamic nation soon as tensions simmer; Trump’s role crucial

Israel is widely expected to enter into another armed conflict with Iran before the end of the year, potentially as soon as late August, according to analysts following the region closely.

Iran, anticipating a renewed Israeli offensive, appears prepared to strike decisively from the outset, signaling that the next confrontation could be far bloodier than previous engagements. Experts warn that if the US chooses to join the fight, the conflict could escalate into a full-blown war far more destructive than the Iraq War.

US involvement will likely prove decisive as President Donald Trump, who oversaw limited strikes in June, appears reluctant to engage in prolonged warfare, but staying out of a future conflict may be politically and militarily challenging. Analysts caution that limited engagement may no longer be an option; Trump may have to either fully commit or resist sustained Israeli pressure.

Israel’s objectives

Israel’s June operations were not solely about Iran’s nuclear program. For more than two decades, Israel has pressured the United States to take military action to weaken Tehran and shift the Middle East’s balance of power, an objective Israel cannot achieve on its own. Beyond targeting nuclear infrastructure, Israel sought to draw the US directly into combat, decapitate the Iranian regime, and reduce Iran to a state vulnerable to aerial strikes, similar to Syria or Lebanon. Only the first goal saw limited success.

Interestingly, Trump did not “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear program, nor has it been set back to a point where the issue can be considered resolved.

Despite early intelligence gains, including the deaths of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, Iran quickly replaced its leadership and retaliated with heavy missile barrages. Threats aimed at triggering defections within Iran’s political and military elite failed, and instead, nationalism surged, bolstering the regime. Analysts say Israel inadvertently strengthened Tehran’s narrative and internal cohesion.

Israel also fell short of achieving sustainable aerial dominance. While it controlled Iranian airspace temporarily, Iranian missile strikes inflicted significant damage. The US provided critical support, including a substantial portion of its THAAD missile interceptors, without which Israel might not have continued the campaign.

Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz and military chief Eyal Zamir, have indicated that June’s war was only the first phase. Israel aims to prevent Iran from rebuilding its missile arsenal and restoring air defenses, a strategy often described as “mowing the grass,” striking repeatedly to limit adversaries’ military growth.

For Iran, the imperative is clear that the next conflict will demand an overwhelming response to deter future Israeli attacks. Iranian officials have publicly vowed to react decisively and visibly if provoked again.

Instead of rallying the population against the regime, Israel inadvertently reinforced the Islamic Republic’s narrative. Rather than criticizing the regime for its investments in a nuclear program, missile capabilities, and a network of allied nonstate actors, many Iranians are now frustrated that these very elements of Iran’s deterrence failed to provide adequate protection.