The Internal Revenue Service(IRS) expects to receive 164 million tax returns for the 2025 tax year before the April 15, 2026 filing deadline. But that headline number comes with a serious warning. As of late January, the agency is still working through nearly 2 million unresolved tax cases from prior years, even as its workforce has shrunk by roughly 27%, according to a January 26 report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.

For millions of taxpayers counting on a fast IRS tax refund in 2026, the math is simple. Fewer staff. Old backlogs. New returns arriving daily. The result could be longer IRS processing times, especially for certain types of tax returns.

The situation is further complicated by a federal push to modernize payments and phase out paper checks across government agencies. That change directly affects how and when some refunds are issued. Taxpayers expecting a paper refund check may face automatic delays this filing season.


While the IRS says most electronic returns with direct deposit should move normally, returns that require manual review, identity verification, or income matching checks are far more likely to be held up. For families depending on their 2026 tax refund for major expenses — from home repairs to travel or debt repayment — understanding which returns are most at risk is critical.

IRS staffing shortages and tax return backlog in 2026

The watchdog report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration outlines the core pressure points inside the IRS. The agency must handle this year’s 164 million incoming returns while also resolving nearly 2 million older, unresolved cases.

At the same time, staffing levels have fallen by approximately 27% compared to previous years. That reduction impacts processing centers, customer service operations, and manual review teams.

Manual handling is the key issue. When a tax return cannot be automatically processed by IRS systems, it must be reviewed by a human employee. That includes checking income documents, verifying credits, or confirming identity information. With fewer employees available, these returns naturally take longer to process.

Tax professionals say this means IRS refund delays in 2026 are most likely for complex filings. The more paperwork involved, the higher the risk of being pulled out of automated processing.

Which tax returns are most likely to be delayed?

Not all taxpayers face the same risk. Straightforward electronic returns remain the safest option. If you e-file early and choose direct deposit, your chances of receiving a refund on time remain high, especially before peak filing season in March and early April.

However, several categories of returns are far more vulnerable to delays:

Paper tax returns top the list. These must be opened, scanned, and manually entered into IRS systems. That process alone can take weeks during busy periods.

Amended tax returns are another red flag. Because they involve correcting prior filings, they almost always require manual review.

Returns flagged for identity verification also face extended timelines. If there is a mismatch in Social Security numbers, income data from W-2 or 1099 forms, or suspected identity theft, the IRS pauses processing until the issue is resolved.

Income mismatches are increasingly common. If your reported income does not match employer or financial institution records, your refund can be frozen while the discrepancy is investigated.

There are also statutory delays. By law, the IRS cannot issue refunds before mid-February for taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC). That rule applies every year and affects millions of lower- and middle-income families.

Refund delivery method also matters. In 2025, roughly 6 million refunds — about 7% of the total — were issued by paper check. Now, under updated federal payment modernization policies, the IRS will freeze certain refunds for up to six weeks if taxpayers do not provide bank account information for direct deposit. Only after that holding period will a paper check be mailed.

For taxpayers expecting a fast refund check in 2026, that change alone could mean a significant wait.

How to avoid IRS refund delays in 2026

Tax experts say the best way to avoid IRS processing delays is simple: file electronically and use direct deposit. E-filing reduces errors, speeds up system checks, and keeps returns inside automated pipelines.

Double-checking your return before submission is equally important. Make sure all W-2 forms, 1099 income statements, and other tax documents match exactly what you report. Small errors can trigger identity verification or income matching reviews.

Confirm your bank routing number and account number carefully. Incorrect direct deposit information can freeze or misdirect refunds.

Setting up access to your IRS Online Account can also help. It allows you to review tax records, check notices, and respond quickly if the agency flags your return.

The IRS “Where’s My Refund?” tool remains one of the most used resources during tax season. Taxpayers can track their refund status within 24 hours of e-filing. For paper returns, updates may take about four weeks to appear in the system.

Filing early is another strategic advantage. Returns submitted in January or early February typically avoid the heavy surge that hits in March and April. As the filing deadline approaches, IRS systems face higher volumes and longer queues.

FAQs:

1. Why is my IRS tax refund delayed in 2026?

Nearly 2 million unresolved tax cases are still pending as the IRS prepares to process 164 million new returns for the 2025 tax year. Staffing levels are down about 27%, increasing IRS processing delays. Paper tax returns, amended returns, and filings flagged for identity verification are most affected. Even small income mismatches can freeze refunds. Filing errors and missing information add further delays.

2. How long does the IRS take to process a paper tax return in 2026?

About 7% of refunds last year — roughly 6 million — were issued by paper check, and those returns required manual handling. Paper tax returns can take four weeks or longer just to enter IRS systems. In 2026, staffing shortages may extend that timeline further. Refunds requested by paper check can also face an additional six-week hold under updated federal payment rules.

3. When will I receive my Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) refund in 2026?

By law, the IRS cannot issue EITC or Additional Child Tax Credit refunds before mid-February, regardless of when you file. Millions of taxpayers are affected each year. Even if you e-file in January, your refund will not be released early. After mid-February, processing times depend on accuracy, identity verification checks, and whether you chose direct deposit.

4. What is the fastest way to get my IRS tax refund in 2026?

Electronic filing with direct deposit remains the fastest option, with most accurate returns processed within 21 days. The IRS expects 164 million returns this season, so early filing matters. Double-check W-2s and 1099s for income matching. Ensure correct bank account details. E-filed returns submitted before peak March volume face fewer IRS refund delays.