Iran war could push up summer airfares — here's when to book tickets

Travellers planning summer vacations may want to act sooner rather than later. A surge in jet fuel prices linked to the ongoing Iran war is beginning to ripple through the airline industry, and that pressure is quickly showing up in ticket prices.

Airlines across the world are already adjusting fares as their operating costs climb. Travel analysts say the traditional strategy of waiting for last-minute airfare deals may not work this year.

With airlines recalculating prices in real time, many experts now suggest locking in flights earlier than usual to avoid potentially higher costs later in the season, as per a report by Investopedia.


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Why is the Iran war affecting airline ticket prices?

The rising cost of jet fuel is quickly becoming one of the biggest factors shaping summer travel prices. Since the start of the Iran war, jet fuel prices have climbed sharply. Before the conflict escalated, aviation fuel traded around $2.50 per gallon on February 27. Within days, it surged to $3.95 on March 5 before easing slightly to about $3.40 by March 10.

That increase represents more than just higher oil prices. Fuel is the second-largest expense airlines face after labor, typically accounting for roughly 20% to 30% of their operating costs. When fuel costs spike, airlines almost always adjust ticket prices to offset the added expense.

A major factor behind the surge is the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, commercial traffic through the strait has largely stopped, sending energy markets into turmoil.

At a briefing in Lima, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association, said aviation fuel costs have climbed faster than crude oil itself. The margin refiners charge above crude prices, known as the crack spread, has more than doubled and remains significantly higher than for other fuels.

Those increases are creating enormous new costs for airlines. According to Skift Research, carriers could face an additional $24 billion in fuel expenses. To compensate, airlines may need to raise fares by at least 10%, as per a report by Investopedia.

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Are airlines already raising fares?

Airlines are not waiting long to respond to the fuel spike. Many carriers have already started adjusting prices across several routes, especially for international travel.

The first increases are appearing in premium cabins such as business and first class. Airlines often raise those fares first because business travelers are less sensitive to price changes.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned the impact on ticket prices would "probably start quick." Some airlines are also adding fuel surcharges on long-haul international flights. In parts of Asia, fares for these routes have already risen about 15%, as per a report by Investopedia.

Airfares had been trending upward even before the conflict began. In January alone, airline ticket prices jumped 6.5%. Now, the pressure from fuel costs is adding another layer of increases.

American carriers are particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices. Unlike many European and Asian airlines, major U.S. airlines such as American, United and Delta do not hedge their fuel purchases. That means any spike in oil prices immediately affects their operating costs.

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When is the best time to book summer travel now?

For years, travelers relied on a familiar pattern when booking flights. Data from Expedia and Google Flights shows that domestic airfare typically reaches its lowest point about 15 to 45 days before departure. International flights often hit their best prices roughly 49 days or more before travel.

Under normal circumstances, that strategy would mean waiting until May or June to book July flights.

But analysts say the current situation is different. Airlines are already repricing summer routes as fuel costs rise. Because of that, the usual booking window may not produce the same bargains travelers expect.

Waiting too long could mean paying more as airlines update their pricing models. Travellers who delay booking may also find themselves competing with last-minute business travelers whose companies cover the cost of tickets. When that happens, airlines often keep fares high because demand remains strong.

Airline pricing systems constantly adjust future bookings. Analysts expect fares for July and August travel to be recalculated within the next two to four weeks.

Brett Snyder, founder of the airline industry site Cranky Flier, said international travelers in particular should consider booking soon.

"We are getting into the window for good summer fares for long-haul flying now."

However, Snyder noted that travelers flying domestically may still have a little more time. For those routes, he said passengers "can probably wait a bit."


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Will ticket prices drop if fuel costs fall?

Even if oil prices stabilize, airfare may not quickly follow. According to Snyder, airlines rarely rush to reduce fares when their costs fall, especially if demand remains strong.

He explained that carriers prefer to protect future revenue rather than sell too many seats cheaply early on.

"The last thing they want to do is take too many tickets at a low fare and run out of seats later on when they cut capacity."

Demand for travel remains high despite global tensions. Data from the International Air Transport Association shows global passenger traffic in early 2026 continuing to grow. Many routes have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Strong demand gives airlines little incentive to lower prices even if fuel costs decline. The only scenario where fares might fall quickly would involve a major drop in travel demand. However, high oil prices could also weaken the broader economy, affecting consumers in other ways.

What can travellers do right now?

If you're planning summer trips, travel experts suggest a few practical strategies.

Booking flights sooner rather than later could help avoid price increases as airlines continue adjusting fares.

Choosing refundable fare classes can also provide flexibility. If ticket prices fall later, travellers may be able to rebook at the lower rate. Data from Expedia suggests Friday departures tend to be the cheapest day to fly domestically.

Travellers may also consider flying in August. Because many schools now start earlier, early August fares are about 12% lower than peak June and July prices. Another option is setting up a Google airfare price alert, which can notify travelers if prices change.

Still, Snyder says travelers should avoid overthinking the timing. "It's not worth playing a game to see if fares may or may not go up or down a little," Snyder said. "If the fare is something you're willing to pay, then pull the trigger and be happy that you're going on vacation."

FAQs

Why are summer airline tickets getting more expensive?
Jet fuel prices have surged since the Iran war began, increasing airline costs and forcing carriers to raise fares.

Should travelers book flights now?
Travel experts say booking sooner may help avoid higher prices as airlines continue adjusting fares.