Iran-U. S war ends but Strait of Hormuz disruptions could continue for months ahead. Here's why

Strait of Hormuz has been reopened but ships are moving but not at the prewar pace. Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated or deteriorated quickly over the course of the war. While the outlook for shipping has improved since the US and Iran pledged to extend their ceasefire, “there is a degree of nervousness around the situation,” said Marcus Baker, the global head of marine, cargo and logistics at insurance brokerage and risk management company Marsh, AP reported.

"As far as the insurance position is concerned, there's a good deal of support for ship owners that are trying to move out" during this period, but the interim deal between Iran and the US does not include language for keeping the strait toll-free beyond the negotiating window, Baker said.

"We'll see what the next six weeks brings us," he said.



Strait of Hormuz is Witnessing Less Number of Ships


Data and analytics company Kpler said its tracking confirmed 71 ships traveled through the strait between Friday and Sunday, with a peak of 35 crossings Saturday. In contrast, about 100 to 130 vessels a day made the journey before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, and Tehran responded with its own attacks and effective closure of the waterway.

Ship traffic has picked up in the Strait of Hormuz since Iran and the US signed an interim deal to end a war that constricted global oil supplies and fueled inflation, but questions surrounding control of the vital waterway and whether vessels will be charged tolls to cross it could interfere with negotiations to forge a lasting peace.


U. S-Iran Clash over Strait of Hormuz



Tehran and Washington clashed over the Strait of Hormuz again this past weekend. Citing Israel's latest attacks on Lebanon, Iran declared that it reclosed the strait. The US was quick to contest that. Maritime tracking data showed that dozens of ships passed through on Saturday and Sunday, though far fewer than the daily average before the war.

President Donald Trump suggested the US might impose its own tolls on strait crossings if a final deal with Iran was not reached during the countries' 60-day negotiating period. Passage was free before the war, but Iran last month established a new governmental authority to collect money from ships and has said it still expects vessels to register with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority.


Who Owns Strait of Hormuz?


No one country owns the Strait of Hormuz, which borders both Iran and Oman. Last week's memorandum of understanding allowed Iran to manage the strait for now while holding discussions with Oman and six other Gulf states “to define the future administration and maritime services” of the waterway. Iran agreed not to charge transiting vessels tolls for 60 days.

Legal experts and maritime associations have repeatedly stressed that a toll regime would upend decades of international trade precedent involving the world's waters. If the US and Iran cement a final deal, analysts say it could take months for the flow of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other commodities to return to prewar levels.