Hurricane Humberto strengthens into major category 4 as tropical storm Imelda forms; Southeast US coast faces growing threat

Hurricane Humberto has rapidly intensified into a major Category 4 storm as it churns over the central Atlantic, prompting heightened concerns for the US East Coast. Simultaneously, a developing tropical system in the Caribbean is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda by the weekend, increasing the likelihood of significant impacts along the southeastern United States. A tropical wave traversing the Caribbean Sea is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Imelda by the weekend as it approaches the Bahamas, raising the potential for effects along the US coastline, the National Hurricane Center reports. At the same time, Hurricane Humberto, located northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, is forecast to continue intensifying.

The National Hurricane Center said Humberto is expected to reach major hurricane status by Sept. 26 or 27. If it does, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, noted that this would mark the Atlantic’s "3 for 3" in major hurricanes this year, following Erin and Gabrielle. He added that the last time the first three hurricanes of an Atlantic season all reached major status was in 1935.

Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said on the evening of Sept. 25 that how these storms interact with each other and with other regional weather systems will influence their potential impacts on the US East Coast, the Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda over the coming days. He noted, however, that the risk of effects along the coast from Florida to North Carolina is increasing.

Caribbean tropical wave forecast

The National Hurricane Center reported early Friday, Sept 26, that a low-pressure area is likely to develop along the tropical wave as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas. "This low is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression near the central and northwestern Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend, before moving northwest or north over the southwestern Atlantic," the center said.

"There's an increasing risk of impacts from this system across portions of the Bahamas and across portions of the Southeast United States coastline as we go through the weekend and into early next week," Brennan said on the evening of Sept. 25.

Forecast uncertainty remains for the tropical wave, as meteorological models disagree on its eventual path. Some models indicate the system could pass close to the coast or even make landfall in the Carolinas. In contrast, others suggest it may veer out into the open Atlantic, similar to the behavior of other storms this season.

"Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days," the hurricane center said. "While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the Southeast US coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system."

Flooding was reported in Puerto Rico on Sept. 25, according to the weather service.

Humberto forecast to become major hurricane

As of 11 am on Sept. 26, Hurricane Humberto was located approximately 450 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving northwest at 5 mph with sustained winds of 90 mph.

Currently, Humberto is expected to follow a path similar to Hurricane Erin, tracking between the US and Bermuda. However, its continued strengthening is raising the risk of long-period swells, which could create hazardous seas and surf conditions along the US coastline, the National Hurricane Center reported.

The storm’s precise track remains uncertain and will be influenced by the development of potential Tropical Storm Imelda and other nearby weather systems. Additionally, rainfall projections from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center indicate that significant precipitation could impact the Southeast over the next seven days.