How will Apple stock move with the iPhone 17 launch along with other products and upgrades? Here’s what analysts say

Apple stock is once again in the spotlight as the company gears up for its highly anticipated iPhone 17 launch event. Shares of the tech giant have climbed 4% in the past week, fueled by investor optimism that the new lineup — including the ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air — could reignite consumer demand.

Yet, despite this pre-event rally, Apple is still down 4.7% year-to-date, a sharp contrast to the 13.5% gain in the Nasdaq 100 and the 11.4% rise in the S&P 500.

The stakes are high this year. Analysts expect Apple to raise iPhone prices for the first time in seven years, with the iPhone 17 Air starting at $999 for 256GB and climbing to $1,399 for the 1TB model.


By eliminating lower storage options, Apple is nudging up its average revenue per unit — a subtle but significant shift that could help offset slowing global smartphone demand.

At the same time, Apple’s Services division, now nearly 25% of total revenue, continues to provide a steady growth cushion.

ALSO READ: US stock futures rise as Nasdaq hits record, S&P 500 and Dow climb, Fed rate cut bets build while Apple’s iPhone 17 event takes center stage

Still, investors remain cautious. History shows that Apple product launches often trigger a “sell-the-news” dip, and concerns over delayed AI upgrades and stiff competition loom large.

Analysts warn that without a breakthrough in AI and Siri capabilities — now pushed into 2026 — the iPhone 17 cycle may drive only modest gains.

For investors, the big question is whether Apple’s design changes and pricing power will be enough to spark momentum, or if volatility will once again dominate the stock’s near-term path.

What makes iPhone 17 different from past launches?

Over the past two years, Apple has stuck to incremental updates — iPhone 16 (2024), iPhone 15 (2023), and supporting hardware like AirPods, Watches, and MacBooks.

This time, analysts say the iPhone 17 Air, expected to be Apple’s slimmest flagship yet at around 5.5mm thick, could spark consumer upgrades.

Pricing is also a critical lever. Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring projects a $100 increase for the iPhone 17 Air versus the iPhone 16 Plus, starting at $999 for 256GB and reaching $1,399 for the 1TB model. He also expects the iPhone 17 Pro to start at $1,099, as Apple eliminates the 128GB entry SKU. These subtle changes could raise average revenue per unit, even without a sales “supercycle.”

Analysts expect modest gains, not fireworks

Wall Street views Apple’s fiscal 2026 outlook as conservative but stable. Morgan Stanley forecasts 232 million iPhone units sold, bringing in roughly $220 billion in revenue — only a 2% increase from current levels.

• Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan: iPhone 17 Air could spur upgrades but is unlikely to unleash a major buying surge. Price target: $250.
  
  
• Wedbush Securities: Sees $50–$100 price hikes for Pro models but warns of AI strategy concerns.
  
  
• UBS and Citi: Flag delays in Siri and Apple Intelligence upgrades, pushing meaningful AI features into 2026.
  
  

In other words, while design and pricing may bring a short-term bump, Apple’s lag in AI could cap upside.

The AI gap: Apple’s Achilles’ heel

Apple is innovating in form factor but falling behind in artificial intelligence. The company delayed core AI enhancements, including an upgraded Siri, until 2026. Meanwhile, competitors like Google and Microsoft are integrating AI deeply into their ecosystems.

Adding to concerns, talent outflows such as leading researcher Jian Zhang leaving Apple’s AI division signal challenges in execution. Analysts warn that without a clear AI roadmap, Apple’s product events will continue to feel like hardware refreshes, not tech revolutions.

What does this mean for Apple investors?

• Near term: Volatility is likely. If today’s launch underwhelms, shares may retreat, offering patient investors a better entry point once holiday-quarter guidance becomes clearer.
  
  
• Medium term: Strong fundamentals remain. iPhone still drives over half of revenue, while Services (now ~25% of sales) grow at double-digit rates, providing stable margins.
  
  
• Long term: AI will decide Apple’s trajectory. Without major AI breakthroughs in the next two years, Apple risks losing its edge against rivals.

FAQs:

Q1. How has Apple stock performed ahead of the iPhone 17 launch?
Apple shares are up 4% in the past week, but still down 4.7% year-to-date, lagging behind the Nasdaq 100 (+13.5%) and S&P 500 (+11.4%).

Q2. What are analysts projecting for Apple’s iPhone 17 sales and revenue?
Morgan Stanley forecasts 232 million iPhones sold in fiscal 2026, generating around $220 billion in revenue, supported by price hikes and higher storage configurations.