How a Polymarket trader made $500,000 betting on the death of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

A trader using the username “Magamyman” made waves on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket by earning more than $553,000 placing bets tied to the removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader just hours before Iranian leader Ali Khamenei was killed during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.

The timing of the win has reignited intense debate about the ethics and regulation of prediction markets, especially bets linked to war, geopolitical events and leadership changes.

Lawmakers and critics say the incident raises serious questions about fairness, insider knowledge and whether such markets should be allowed to operate as they do now, as per a report by USA Today.


In the hours before the Feb. 28 U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that resulted in the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, an account on Polymarket placed a series of wagers predicting the timing and outcome of leadership change in Iran. According to reports, the trader’s activity generated a profit of more than $553,000.

The account, operating under the name “Magamyman,” was created in October 2024 and had previously engaged in similar military and geopolitical markets. One single bet — predicting that the U.S. would strike Iran by Feb. 28 — delivered significant returns when the strike occurred as forecast.

What are critics saying about the timing?

The unusually timed trades drew swift criticism. Lawmakers and prediction market users alike questioned how accurate market participants could have been in timing their bets unless they possessed unusually specific insight, as per a report by USA Today.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Connecticut, blasted the situation as “insane,” saying that “people around Trump are profiting off war and death,” and indicated plans to introduce legislation to limit such betting.

Meanwhile, other political figures echoed concerns over the lack of transparency and the ethical implications of monetizing geopolitical violence or leadership loss.

How are lawmakers and platforms responding?

The controversy follows broader scrutiny of online prediction markets, which have surged in popularity but operate with varying regulatory oversight.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reportedly moving toward rules for prediction markets amid concerns around insider trading, morality and connections to real events, as per a report by USA Today.

Platforms such as Polymarket and rival Kalshi have also been under fire for how they handle markets tied to major global events. In response to similar controversies, Kalshi has altered or voided bets directly tied to deaths to comply with regulatory constraints.

Critics say the Polymarket incident underlines the need for clearer rules and oversight to prevent speculation based on sensitive or potentially harmful insider information — especially when real-world conflict and lives are at stake.

FAQs

How much did the Polymarket trader make?
The trader known as “Magamyman” reportedly earned more than $553,000 by betting on Iran’s Supreme Leader losing power prior to the strike.

Why is this controversial?
Critics argue that making large bets tied to violent geopolitical events — especially close to when they occur — raises ethical and regulatory concerns.