Government shutdown 2026: What's the latest update? Odds say 69% - here's what you need to know

The long- pending funding bills of the US congress could force a government shutdown on Jan 31–at least if the bills are not passed by Jan 30 midnight. With the killing of two citizens in Minnesota by ICE agents, senate democrats led by Chuck Schumer, are opposing funding for ICE and Border Patrol in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) bill until reforms are made.

The Democrat opposition has been bolstered following the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota on Jan. 24, 2026, by federal agents, as stated by Delaware Online. Senate Republicans and Senate Majority Leader John Thune are pushing for a vote to approve DHS funding and prevent another shutdown.

Government shutdown odds very high

Prediction markets show the odds of a shutdown are very high:

• Polymarket: 67% chance, over $20.6 million in trade volume.
• Kalshi: 65–75% chance, over $16.5 million in trade volume.

The betting odds rose sharply after the Alex Pretti shooting, jumping from 11% on Jan. 23 to over 65% in late January. If the Senate fails to pass six of 12 spending bills for the 2026 budget, a partial government shutdown could start.

Departments affected could include Defense, FEMA, DHS, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, Housing, State, and Treasury, though exact details are unclear, as per the report Delaware Online. A partial shutdown still counts as a full shutdown in prediction markets, affecting federal workers and operations.

Real-time Senate debates and votes today will decide if a shutdown happens, with tensions high over DHS and ICE funding. Social media and prediction platforms are tracking the odds closely, with Kalshi reporting a 69% chance as of Thursday morning, Jan. 29, 2026.

FAQs

Q1. Will there be a U.S. government shutdown in 2026?

Yes, a shutdown is possible if the Senate does not pass funding bills by the Jan. 30 deadline.

Q2. Why are shutdown chances so high right now?

Shutdown odds are rising because Democrats are blocking a DHS funding bill over ICE reforms after the Alex Pretti shooting.