Gold rate prediction: Will gold price jump after US Midterm elections results? Check critical factors

Gold got its glittering back after spot gold rose 2.1 per cent to $3,954.41 per ounce, having ended 3.6 per cent lower on Friday to hit its lowest since October 2025. US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.8 per cent higher at $3,969.60 per ounce. Spot silver climbed 3.1 per cent to $50.64 per ounce after breaking below $50 for the first time since late November 2025 in the last session. Spot platinum rose 1.3 per cent to $1,449.25, while palladium was down 1.1 per cent at $966.08.

Attention is now shifting to the November 3 US midterm elections to assess the potential impact on fiscal policy, geopolitics and broader market sentiment.

Gold Price Prediction


Gold prices rose more than 2 per cent on Monday, rebounding from a one-year low hit in the previous session, supported by a retreat in oil prices that tempered inflation worries, while investors awaited US midterm elections later this week. A selloff in technology and AI-linked stocks spilled across markets on Friday, as margin calls led to sales of safe-haven assets such as gold, analysts said.

Oil prices fell about 8 per cent on Monday after Iran and Qatar held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Weaker oil prices have provided some relief ... in terms of reducing inflation concerns. But the market is still expecting a December rate hike from the Fed, although those odds have lessened a little bit over the last couple of trading sessions," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, adding that the dollar was providing a little bit of a tailwind too.

Traders see a 77 per cent chance of a US rate hike in December, down from 80 per cent a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Gold's 14-day Relative Strength Index, an indicator used to gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold, rose to about 37 on Monday from below 30 on Friday, indicating the metal had emerged from technically oversold territory.

"The fiscal backdrop in the US is unlikely to change significantly enough to make a difference for gold. Deficits should persist no matter the outcome of the midterms, suggesting that the US debt and interest burden should remain a longer-term supportive factor for gold," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.