Gold price prediction: Gold rate fell big in September. What to expect in October to December, factors that will impact bullion the most

Gold began the month of October on a positive note after rates declined throughout September. Gold price today jumped after bullion rates fell more than six per cent during previous month. Spot gold was up 0.6 per cent to $4,183.22 per ounce.

Gold prices rose on Thursday, because of softer-than-expected US inflation report that lowered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, although rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar limited further gains.

The 10-year Treasury yields scaled their highest level in more than two decades, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger dollar made greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.


Gold Rate Prediction

US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.6 per cent to $4,212.80.

Yesterday's inflation numbers were helpful for gold in the sense that they weren't as strong as the market had expected and therefore helped dial down some of the expectations for rate hikes," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.

"This bond market volatility does seem to point to gold being possibly a better anti-fragile hedge. And I could see more interest in gold as a result of its role as an instrument of stability in terms of uncertainty and chaos," Shah said.

Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, while price pressures were revised lower for the prior month.

Silver Price

Spot silver rose 1.2 per cent to $61.11, platinum gained 1 per cent to $1,723.69 and palladium dipped 0.7 per cent to $1,195.80.

The data reduced expectations of a rate hike in October, with markets pricing in a 37 per cent chance, down from 45 per cent before the release. Traders, however, still see an 89 per cent probability of an increase in December.

In focus now is the September US nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday, as well as remarks from Fed policymakers for clues on monetary policy.

Iran said on Wednesday it had received a US response to its latest proposal to resurrect the ceasefire in the Iran war, days after US President Donald Trump said he had rejected it.