Gold price prediction: Gold rate falls amidst big movement in oil price, inflation, check experts' opinions

Gold price was down today after spot gold fell 0.4 per cent to $4,070.59 per ounce and US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.8 per cent to $4,080.70. Other metals witnessed a topsy-turvy day of trading as spot silver gained 0.6 per cent to $52.04 per ounce and platinum rose 0.4 per cent to $1,523.32, while palladium fell 1 per cent to $1,020.9. All three were poised for weekly gains.

Gold had a volatile session on Friday during which the day-wise price has fallen but gold rate was up 5 per cent for the week so far. Gold is poised to record its strongest week in over two months. Gold price had dropped to a one-year low of $3,869.85 an ounce on October 30.

Gold Rate Expectations


Investors are awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report, for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. If it is in line with expectations or weaker, then gold prices may receive support, Staunovo said, adding that a weaker labour market diminishes the path of rate hikes, Reuters reported.

Brent crude climbed back towards $100 a barrel, after touching the mark earlier in the session, but was still set for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of a de-escalation in the US-Iran war after midterm election results. Persistent Middle East supply concerns, however, continued to support prices.

There's an "extremely strong correlation again at the moment" between oil prices, inflation and gold rates, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Higher energy costs can warrant the need for tighter monetary policy, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Two Fed officials on Thursday backed small, steady rate hikes to rein in above-target inflation. Traders currently see a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, citing the implications of the US Fed's more hawkish policy stance in recent months.

Sharwan Goyal, Executive Vice President & Head - Passive, Arbitrage and Quant Strategies and FM (Equity) at UTI AMC, said gold acts as a store of value and portfolio diversifier, while silver provides exposure to industrial themes, such as solar and electric vehicles, though it carries higher volatility, PTI reported.

In international markets, spot gold fell USD 20.41, or 0.5 per cent, to USD 4,070 per ounce. However, silver traded marginally higher at USD 52 per ounce.