Gold price prediction for Monday, October 12: Check latest gold rate predictions

Gold price on Monday is likely to be on a green note even as the bullion continuous to move through eventful geo-political circumstances. In overseas markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery gained 54, or 1.3 per cent, last week to close at USD 4,216.3 per ounce, while silver rose over 1 per cent to USD 61.05 per ounce. Silver also recovered in the last two sessions, drawing support from gold and positive momentum in industrial metals such as copper and zinc. Geopolitical uncertainty remains another factor for bullion.

Gold futures ended with a weekly gain of more than 1 per cent, on bargain buying at lower levels recovering from around USD 4,066 to above USD 4,200 per ounce, said Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd.

Most of the gains came in the last two trading sessions as the dollar consolidated around the 102 level and US Treasury yields pared some recent gains, Mer said.


However, the upside was capped by concerns that high prices could weaken demand as buyers turn to alternatives, alongside expectations of a market supply surplus in 2027, he added.

The US-Iran conflict remains unresolved, with tensions escalating after President Donald Trump said Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in neighbouring Yemen following an attack on Riyadh's international airport. Analysts said interplay of currency movements, US rate expectations, geopolitical developments and investment demand is likely to determine whether bullion sustains its recent recovery or remains confined to a range in the next week.

Gold Rate Rises

Gold rose for a second straight session on Friday, touching a one-week high, as bargain buying emerged after bullion fell to two-month low earlier this week, while traders assessed the likelihood of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Spot gold rose 1.5 per cent to $4,194.36 per ounce, heading for a weekly gain of about 1.3 per cent. The metal fell to a two-month low on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal.

US gold futures for December delivery gained 1.4 per cent to settle at $4,216.3.

Bullion gained due to "bargain hunting at the lows, as a floor has been building in the $4,000-region," said Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at Stone X. "It is arguable that a further Fed hike is already priced in but so is the expectation for continued official sector net purchases. Without any Black Swan event I find it hard to see gold breaking convincingly higher," O'Connell said.

Traders are pricing in a 19 per cent chance of a rate hike in October and an 84 per cent probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Gold tends to lose its appeal compared to yield-bearing assets in a high interest-rate environment.

"The coming week's CPI release may act as a catalyst for gold's next big move... Still-stubborn inflation that pushes the Fed into a steeper rate-hike cycle may force spot gold to re-test the psychological $4,000 support once more," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit.