Gold price prediction for February 2026: US-Iran talks, Russia-Ukraine meeting, US Federal reserve details to drive gold rate this month

Gold price fell to a more than one-week low on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar as investors tracked cues on geopolitics and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Spot gold dropped ‌1.5 per cent to $4,918.65 ⁠per ounce after losing over 2 per cent earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 2.2 per cent to $4,937 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.2 per cent against a basket of currencies, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold Rate Prediction

"Traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode...safe-haven demand has paused as markets await greater clarity from ​the U.S.–Iran talks, while expectations for the Federal ⁠Reserve’s rate path ‌could be influenced by the release of the latest ​FOMC minutes," said ​ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.


The U.S. and Iran will hold ⁠indirect nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, with little clear ​indication of compromise as Washington masses a battle force ​in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian and Russian representatives will also meet in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday for U.S.-mediated peace discussions.

Investors will also scrutinise minutes of the Fed's January meeting, due on Wednesday, for further clues on its interest rate-cutting path.

The market currently expects the first interest rate cut for the year ‌to be in June, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest rate environments.

"Against a ​backdrop of ​geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which ⁠is likely to support safe-haven demand over the medium to long term, and dovish expectations for the U.S. dollar, I see gold prices consolidating above the $5,000 ​level and extending their advance towards $6,000 as the year progresses," Evangelista added.

Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

Spot silver fell 2.5 per cent to $74.63 per ounce, after dropping over 5 per cent earlier. Spot platinum fell 2.5 per cent to $1,991.01 per ounce, while palladium lost 3.1 per cent to $1,670.92.