Gold could hit $5,800 this year despite Iran war volatility, but why are analysts predicting silver may deliver bigger long-term gains - here's what you need to know

Gold and silver price prediction: Even as the Iran war continues creating volatility across global markets, some analysts believe the bigger story for precious metals is still centered on inflation fears, government debt, and long-term pressure on fiat currencies.

Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, pointed out that the current geopolitical tensions have changed the short-term trading environment for gold but have not weakened the broader bullish outlook for the metal, as per a report.

According to Shiels, gold could still reach a fresh all-time high of $5,800 per ounce before the end of 2026, while silver may offer even stronger long-term upside because of ongoing supply shortages and its dual role as both an industrial and investment metal, as per a Kitco News report.

Why Analysts Still See Gold Moving Higher Despite Iran War Volatility

Shiels said the Iran conflict has “reshaped, but not derailed” the long-term case for gold, as per the report.

She expects gold to average around $4,500 per ounce in 2026, with prices potentially moving above $5,000 during the second half of the year.

In the near term, she believes gold could consolidate below $5,000 because of softer physical demand and current oil price levels. However, she said the broader environment still supports higher prices over time.

According to Shiels, concerns surrounding fiscal dominance, longer-term US dollar weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, and stagflation risks continue supporting the precious metal market.

Could Gold Really Reach $10,000 by 2030

While calling it an unlikely scenario, Shiels said gold reaching $10,000 per ounce by 2030 remains “possible,” as quoted by Kitco News.

She explained that such a move would likely require a major shift by institutional investors away from equities and toward hard assets.

Shiels also pointed to several historical comparisons involving gold’s relationship to global stock markets and US government debt.

She noted that gold’s global market value currently represents around 20% of the value of the global stock market, while historically that figure has at times reached 40%.

She also highlighted the relationship between US gold holdings and federal debt levels, saying current gold reserves back only a small percentage of government debt compared with historical wartime periods.

However, she described those extremely high price projections as a “tail” scenario rather than the base case.

Why Silver Could Outperform Gold in the Long Run

Although Shiels remains bullish on gold, she believes silver may have stronger upside potential over the longer term.

Silver previously climbed above $120 per ounce in January, and she said those highs could eventually be revisited if gold continues reaching new records, as per the Kitco News report.

Unlike gold, however, silver faces pressure from both investment demand and industrial demand concerns.

Because silver is heavily used in industry, fears surrounding economic slowdowns and weaker manufacturing activity have created additional headwinds during the Iran conflict and the broader stagflationary environment.

Shiels said industrial demand accounts for more than half of global silver consumption, making the metal more vulnerable during periods of slower economic growth.

Structural Supply Deficits Continue Supporting Silver

Despite near-term volatility, Shiels said silver still benefits from persistent structural supply deficits.

She noted that silver remains well below its inflation-adjusted highs near $200 per ounce, while supply growth has been slow to respond to demand pressures.

According to Shiels, silver’s biggest long-term strength comes from its leverage to the broader hard-asset bull market, particularly if retail and institutional investment flows return at the same time, as per the Kitco News report.

Platinum and Palladium Face Different Market Pressures

Shiels also discussed the outlook for platinum and palladium, saying both metals have been pressured by oil shocks, concerns about economic growth, and uncertainty in the auto sector.

However, she said platinum currently has stronger structural support because of persistent supply deficits, resilient industrial demand, hybrid vehicle demand, jewelry demand, and growing investor participation through futures trading in China, as per the Kitco News report.

Palladium, by comparison, remains more dependent on policy developments and auto-sector demand trends.

FAQs

Why are analysts still bullish on gold despite the Iran war?
Analysts believe inflation fears, government debt, and long-term currency weakness continue supporting gold prices.

What gold price target did Nicky Shiels predict?
Shiels said gold could reach $5,800 per ounce before the end of 2026.