Going against the herd: SocGen's big warning, says U.S is heading for a big recession

SocGen or Société Générale has claimed that there are ominous signs pointing towards a recession in the US economy, according to a report.

SocGen has warned that whenever there was a spike in 36-month moving average of unemployment, the US economy slipped into a recession. SocGen has pointed out that this has been an alarming trend since 1950, Business Insider reported.

SocGen stated that the US economy might go into recession even though Wall Street were hopeful of a fairly positive financial trend once Donald Trump takes charge as the President of the World's largest economy. The inauguration is scheduled for January 20, 2025.


Job growth in the US surged in November even as there was a reported uptick in the unemployment rate which has climbed to 4.2 per cent.

The increase in the jobless rate after holding at 4.1 per cent for two straight months reflected weakness in household employment. The smaller household survey from which the unemployment rate is compiled showed a decline of 355,000 jobs.

About 193,000 people left the labor force in November. That pushed the labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, down to 62.5 per cent from 62.6 per cent.

Business sentiment perked up in the aftermath of Trump's victory in the US election 2024 on hopes of less regulation. But the President-elect's promises to raise tariffs on imports and carry out mass deportations of migrants have raised concerns of higher prices and disruptions to the labor market.

FAQs

Q1. What is current unemployment rate?
A1. Job growth in the US surged in November even as there was a reported uptick in the unemployment rate which has climbed to 4.2 per cent.

Q2. When is Donald Trump's swearing-in ceremony?
A2. Donald Trump's swearing-in ceremony or the inauguration event is scheduled for January 20, 2025.