From danger to nothing: NASA just downgraded the threatening Y24 asteroid to zero; here’s why

The once-dangerous ‘city killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 has been downgraded to almost zero risk after being originally estimated to have a 3% chance of striking Earth in 2032. NASA uses a specific scale to determine their level of danger.

According to recent NASA observations, there is no serious threat. The organization keeps an eye on space objects and develops planetary defense plans to protect Earth from asteroid strikes in the future.

How did NASA first identify the Y24 asteroid as a threat?

When NASA revealed earlier this month that astronomers were monitoring a massive asteroid that has a slim but concerning chance of hitting Earth in the upcoming years, it caused a stir.


Based on their likelihood of striking Earth and the amount of destruction they would cause if they did, astronomers assign a number between 0 and 10 to objects in space.

According to the space agency's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, on Dec. 22, 2032, an object that was between 130 and 300 feet across and had been assigned the designation 2024 YR4 was travelling in a direction that increased its likelihood of colliding with Earth by up to 3%, as per a report.

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Unlike the 6-mile-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, an asteroid of that size isn't large enough to endanger life on Earth, but if it hit a major city, it would have enough impact to kill millions of people.

Why was the risk of impact downgraded?

Fortunately, additional observations have caused NASA's team to lower the likelihood that 2024 YR4 will strike Earth to 0.004% as of Sunday. This is so low that it is thought to have "no significant potential" to do so.

How does NASA rank asteroid threats?

The bombardment of our planet is continuous. Roughly 100,000 pounds of space rock are thought to fall on Earth each day. The atmosphere burns up almost all of that.

Understanding NASA’s Torino Impact Hazard Scale

Asteroids are categorized by number and color using the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. 2024 YR4 peaked at level 3, which is in the yellow zone of objects that are worthy of astronomers' attention but are likely to be downgraded to level 0 after more observation.

Even though asteroids in the yellow zone have the potential to cause significant damage, there isn't much cause for alarm because of how unlikely it is that they will strike Earth. At this stage, astronomers counsel scientists and governments to implement backup plans to keep the object from hitting Earth.

The biggest threats, enormous asteroids that are certain to hit Earth, are kept in the red zone.


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In the billions of years since Earth's formation, asteroids of all levels, including level 10, have struck the planet, but these encounters are incredibly uncommon.

Since it's rare for any object to reach level 3, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is notable. Since the creation of the Torino scale, no incoming asteroid has ever been assigned a rating higher than level 4.

FAQs

Was the asteroid 2024 YR4 actually a threat to Earth?
Initially, scientists estimated a small but concerning chance of impact. However, additional observations ruled out any serious threat.

How does NASA determine whether an asteroid is dangerous?
NASA ranks asteroids on the Torino Scale (0-10) according to their likelihood of impact and potential destruction, with 2024 YR4 now downgraded to level 0.