Food crisis after fuel shock? Which countries may be at risk of wheat, rice, and cooking oil shortages amid the US–Israel war

Warnings of a looming food crisis are growing louder as the ongoing US-Israel war continues to disrupt global supply chains. International observers caution that the conflict, if prolonged, could trigger a fresh wave of food inflation, pushing millions, particularly in low-income nations, towards acute hunger.

The crisis is closely tied to rising fuel costs, shipping disruptions and escalating fertiliser prices, all of which play a crucial role in food production and distribution. While developed economies have begun to feel the pinch through higher prices, experts say the most severe consequences will be borne by import-dependent countries with fragile food systems, as per a report by NBC.

Strait of Hormuz disruption and ripple effects

At the centre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and fertiliser shipments pass. Iran’s tightening grip over this route has led to delays and increased shipping costs, disrupting global trade flows.

Energy prices have surged as a result, raising the cost of transporting food across continents. The knock-on effect is particularly acute for countries that rely heavily on imports for essential commodities such as wheat, rice and cooking oil.

Analysts note that even marginal increases in freight costs can translate into sharp retail price hikes in poorer nations, where consumers already spend a large share of their income on food, as mentioned in a report by NBC.

Fertiliser shortage adds to pressure

Beyond fuel, fertiliser availability has emerged as a critical concern in the unfolding Food crisis. Liquefied natural gas, a key input for producing nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea, has seen price volatility due to supply uncertainties linked to the conflict.

With a substantial share of globally traded fertiliser passing through the Gulf region, disruptions have already begun to affect availability and pricing. Farmers preparing for upcoming planting seasons face the prospect of reduced fertiliser use, which could lower crop yields and tighten food supplies further.

Experts warn that this cycle, higher input costs leading to lower production, could significantly deepen the global food crisis if the situation persists.

Regions most at risk

The impact of the Food crisis is expected to be uneven, with developing regions facing the greatest risks. Countries in South Asia, East Africa and parts of Latin America are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on imported fertilisers and fuel.

For instance, nations like Malawi depend heavily on fertiliser supplies from the Gulf, making them highly exposed to supply chain disruptions. Smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of agriculture in these regions, may struggle to absorb rising costs, potentially leading to reduced output and higher local prices.

Similarly, economies such as Brazil, despite being major agricultural producers, could face increased production costs that ripple through global markets.

Rising hunger and global implications

Humanitarian agencies have warned that the cascading effects of the US Israel war could push tens of millions more people into food insecurity.

In regions already grappling with poverty and climate-related challenges, even modest price increases can significantly reduce access to basic nutrition. Aid organisations fear that a prolonged conflict may strain global food assistance programmes, further exacerbating the crisis.

FAQs

Why is there a risk of a global Food crisis?

The ongoing US Israel war has disrupted fuel, shipping and fertiliser supplies, increasing food production and transport costs worldwide.

Which regions are most vulnerable?

South Asia, East Africa and parts of Latin America are most at risk due to dependence on imports and fragile food systems.