El Nino effect 2023-2024: Weather forecast, economic impact, key details

Weather extremes triggered by El Niño not only impact the US but also have economic repercussions. A study in Science examined the economic effects of the strongest El Niño cycles in the past six decades (1982-1983 and 1997-1998). It revealed considerable economic losses, affecting personal income and causing commodity prices to rise due to weather-induced crop damage.

Approximately 56 per cent of countries witnessed significant growth declines five years after El Niño, with an average decrease of 2.3 per cent. In the tropics, countries like Ecuador, Brazil, and Indonesia experienced losses of 5 per cent to 22 per cent of their GDP during the 1997-98 El Niño.

The global losses in 1983 amounted to around $239 billion but surged to $4.9 trillion after five years. In 1997-98, losses were $455 billion and grew to $7.5 trillion. Factoring in benefits from preceding La Niña events, the study projected a potential loss of $9.7 trillion.


A Bloomberg analysis revealed that in the year following the past nine El Niño events, agricultural commodities consistently outperformed the S&P 500. The S&P gained an average of 16.5 oer cent, while the S&P Agricultural Index achieved a higher 24.4 per cent return on investment.

The intermittent climate phenomenon known as El Nino, which typically means more rain and snow for California, developed over the summer and is expected to intensify in the next few months. And this year's El Nino is predicted to be an exceptionally strong one -- maybe even ranking in the top five on record, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

Of course, there are no guarantees. Experts emphasize that not every El Nino period is extra wet in the Golden State, and that the effects of the weather pattern often vary across the state.

FAQs

Q1. What is El Niño?
A1. The intermittent climate phenomenon known as El Nino, which typically means more rain and snow for California, developed over the summer and is expected to intensify in the next few months.

Q2. What is forecast for this year's El Nino?
A2. This year's El Nino is predicted to be an exceptionally strong one -- maybe even ranking in the top five on record, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.