Donald Trump’s first jobs report since becoming president: What economists expect

The first US payrolls report under the second presidency of Donald Trump is set to be released today. The consensus economist forecasts compiled by FactSet project an expected growth in non-farm payrolls from December to January at 170,000, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to stand at 4.1 per cent, the same level recorded in December 2024. Average hourly wages are predicted to rise by 3.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY), reaching a new record hourly wage of nearly $35.80, according to a Forbes report.

Unemployment rate expected to maintain its streak

But the projected pay rise would still reportedly mark the slowest increase since July. According to Forbes, the addition of 170,000 new jobs would represent the weakest January total since 2018. An unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent would make January the ninth consecutive month with at least 4 per cent unemployment.


Discussing the sustained unemployment rate, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Thursday that a broad expanse of data suggests the labour market is stabilising at full employment.

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"That's where you want to settle. It kind of can only get worse ... You could overheat, or you could deteriorate. If you could freeze the job market just exactly where it is, that is not a bad spot," he was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Weather impact on payrolls data

Extreme winter weather and the recent wildfires in California are expected to reduce payroll additions by around 20,000 jobs in January, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is responsible for releasing the monthly employment reports. The jobs report set to be published today, covering the month of January, will effectively be the last under former President Joe Biden's administration.

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FAQs

1. Why is today’s US payroll data significant?
Today’s US jobs report is the first to be released under Donald Trump’s second presidency, making it a key indicator of early economic trends during his new term.


2. What do economists expect for hourly wages?
Economists predict that average hourly wages will increase by 3.8 per cent year-over-year (YoY), reaching a record high of approximately $35.80.