Donald Trump's approval rating crashes to lowest point in second term. Does that mean Republicans are losing mid-term elections?

U.S President Donald Trump's approval rating has hit the lowest so far in his second term. Only 40 per cent of voters approve of his performance, according to The New York Times' tracker, while 56 per cent disapprove.

President Trump's 40 per cent approval rating and the number of Republican-held seats, it is likely that Republicans would lose 30 seats in the House. Historically, there's a reasonably strong relationship between presidential approval nationwide and midterm outcomes. It's not a perfect correlation -- in 2022, for instance, President Joe Biden's approval ratings were worse than President Barack Obama's had been in 2010 and as bad as Trump's today, but Democrats held their own and nearly retained full control of Congress. But the relationship is good enough to say that Republicans are in trouble.

There are still many months to go, but for now it's hard to see a similar set of factors aiding Republicans. And it's easy to imagine how this election could be a referendum on the president. It was economic dissatisfaction that helped propel Trump's gains among lower-income voters in 2024, and economic dissatisfaction is probably helping to roll those gains back. In New York Times/Siena polling over the past year, Trump's approval rating was at 36 per cent among voters making less than $50,000 per year, but 44 per cent among others.


Similarly, voters making less than $50,000 per year prefer Democrats to Republicans for Congress by 12 percentage points, while the race is tied among all other voters.

President Donald Trump is pulling immigration agents from Minneapolis as the unrest there begins to fade. But his approval rating keeps edging down. Where does that leave Republicans in this midterm election year? Come November, we will have clear picture.