Donald Trump leads over Kamala Harris in these two critical swing states just before U.S. presidential debate

A poll released on Monday indicates that in two crucial swing states before this year's presidential election, former president Donald Trump is narrowly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The survey, which was carried out between September 5 and 6, by Mainstreet Research USA and the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, revealed that Trump, the Republican nominee, was leading Harris, the Democratic nominee, in Georgia by 2 points and North Carolina by 1 point. Both polls are based on the responses of at least 647 registered U.S. voters who live in the respective states. The margin of error for the Georgia poll is 3.9 percent, and the margin of error for the North Carolina poll is 3.7 percent.

Patriot Polling's survey indicates a dead heat between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in seven swing states, with Trump expected to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In a race with multiple candidates, RealClear Polling finds that Harris leads by an average of 1.9 percent (47 to 45.1%) in national polls. Based on survey responses, that average also includes third-party candidates on the ballot, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who withdrew from the 2024 contest and endorsed Trump.


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Harris is ahead of Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, 47.2 to 44.4 percent. However, some analysts have cautioned that Trump might be under-polling, drawing comparisons to his campaigns in 2016 and 2020, when early polls failed to correctly predict the former president's support on election day.

In his most recent Silver Bulletin update, pollster Nate Silver, the creator of ABC News' poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, stated on Sunday that new data indicates that the tide is beginning to turn from Harris to Trump. In his blog post, Silver cited the results of the most recent poll conducted by Siena College and The New York Times, which showed Trump leading Harris 48 to 47 percent across the country. Silver predicts momentum could shift in Harris' favour with eight weeks until the election, with Trump's campaign stating voters are better off under Trump, despite $250 million in ad spending.

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FAQs

Who is leading the polls in Georgia and North Carolina?
In Georgia and North Carolina, Donald Trump is leading by two points and one point, respectively, and is in a slight lead.

What does the average national poll reveal?
In a race with multiple candidates, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump nationally by an average of 1.9 percent.