Did Republicans predict a 0.1% rise in inflation amid Donald Trump’s tariffs? Here’s what the data reveals

When it comes to inflation, Democrats and Republicans appear to inhabit separate realities. A recent University of Michigan consumer survey conducted in March underscores this divide.

According to the survey, Democrats anticipate prices will rise by 6.5% over the next year, while Republicans predict a marginal increase of just 0.1%, as mentioned in a report by USA Today.

This stark contrast highlights how partisan beliefs shape not only approval ratings and consumer confidence but also perceptions of economic data.


Apart from Republicans, most Americans now foresee a resurgence of inflation in the coming months.

On average, consumers expect inflation to rise by 4.9% over the next year—the highest projection since November 2022.

Just three months ago, in December 2024, inflation expectations stood at 2.8%.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey in February further supports this trend, showing that Americans expect a 4.8% price increase over the next year—the highest reading since 2023.

Businesses Brace for Rising Prices

The inflationary outlook is not limited to consumers. A survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in February recorded a 10-point surge in small business owners who reported raising prices—the most significant monthly increase since 2021.

“What we’re seeing across all of these surveys is this belief that we’re back in inflationary times,” said Michael Negron, a fellow at the progressive Groundwork Collaborative, as quoted in a report by USA Today.

The Role of Tariffs in Inflation Concerns

One of the primary factors fueling inflation fears is the implementation of tariffs.

President Donald Trump has reignited trade tensions with Canada, Mexico, and China, aiming to bring jobs back to the United States and reduce reliance on foreign economies.

However, economists argue that these tariffs contribute to rising consumer costs.

Despite these concerns, Trump has assured his supporters that tariffs will not burden American households. “It’s not going to be a cost to you,” he stated at a Wisconsin rally in September 2024. “It’s going to be a cost to another country.”

Republicans Expect Minimal Inflation

While economic indicators suggest mounting inflationary pressure, many Republicans continue to align with Trump’s stance.

In the first quarter of 2025, University of Michigan data indicates that Republicans expect only a 0.1% increase in prices over the next year—a figure that remains remarkably low in contrast to broader consumer expectations.

This figure, calculated as a three-month moving average, reflects the persistent partisan divide in economic outlooks.

FAQs

Is inflation good or bad?

Most economists now agree that maintaining low, stable, and, most importantly, predictable inflation benefits the economy.

Has inflation ever been negative in the US?

However, the early 20th century also saw two significant periods of severe negative inflation, known as deflation. The first occurred after the deep recession of 1920–21, while the second took place during the Great Depression of the 1930s.