Coming next week: The U.S. could face pandemic-like toilet paper shortages and price hikes; here’s the main reason

A new round of tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber may have an unexpected consequence, toilet paper shortages across the United States. With supply chains already fragile, the increased costs and reduced pulp production may evoke memories of the 2020 panic buying.

Why are tariffs affecting toilet paper?

These tariffs may disrupt the supply of a key pulp ingredient, resulting in reduced output. Industry experts warn that this could lead to pandemic-like shortages, affecting American consumers.

According to Bloomberg News, President Donald Trump's higher tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber may unintentionally cause production of the bathroom essential to be disrupted.


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How bad could the shortage get?

The news agency said, citing industry participants and observers, that the Trump administration's plans to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 27% and potentially to over 50% later could affect the supply of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK, a crucial component of toilet paper and paper towels, as reported by Quartz.

There will be fewer wood chips available to make pulp as a result of the lumber import taxes, which will eventually force some sawmills out of business.

Due to the market's delicate balance, this will result in short-term closures and reduced ingredient production, which could lead to pandemic-style shortages of the final products and potentially higher prices.

On April 2, when 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods were postponed and were scheduled to take effect, Trump is expected to declare "reciprocal" tariffs on foreign goods.

25% tariffs on all imported vehicles, trucks, and auto parts, including those produced in Canada by American businesses, have already been announced by him.

This year, the 14% import tax on Canadian softwood lumber is expected to increase to nearly 27%.

The duties would increase to roughly 52% due to the 25% tariffs on the majority of Canadian goods, and a "national security" investigation into lumber imports might result in even higher fees.

It won't be simple to replace the roughly 2 million tons of pulp that are currently imported from Canada.

Besides making up the majority of the American supply, many American paper mills depend on individual Canadian mills because their own production methods are tailored to that particular pulp, as per a report by Quartz.

FAQs

Why might there be a toilet paper shortage?
Higher US tariffs on Canadian lumber may disrupt the supply of a key pulp ingredient, slowing production and potentially causing shortages.

Will toilet paper prices rise?
Yes, experts predict that reduced supply and higher production costs will result in price increases, similar to what occurred during the pandemic.