China’s AI reality check: Why tech leaders say beating US AI giants is unlikely anytime soon

China vs US AI race: China’s leading figures in generative artificial intelligence are tempering expectations about how quickly the country can catch up to or surpass the United States in the global AI race, even as Chinese AI companies gain momentum in markets and model development, as per a report.

China’s AI Leaders Curb Expectations in the Global AI Race

At the AGI-Next summit in Beijing, Justin Lin, head of Alibaba Group Holding’s Qwen open-source model team, shared that the likelihood of a Chinese company leapfrogging US leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic with major breakthroughs in the next three to five years is below 20%, as per a Bloomberg report. His view was echoed by executives from Tencent Holdings and Zhipu AI, underscoring a shared sense of realism across China’s AI industry.

Alibaba Executive Puts Low Odds on China Overtaking US AI Giants

Lin said that, “A massive amount of OpenAI’s compute is dedicated to next-generation research, whereas we are stretched thin — just meeting delivery demands consumes most of our resources,” adding, “It’s an age-old question: does innovation happen in the hands of the rich, or the poor?” as quoted by Bloomberg.


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Zhipu and MiniMax IPOs Signal Strong Market Momentum

The caution comes at a time when Chinese AI companies are enjoying strong investor interest. This week, Zhipu and Shanghai-based MiniMax Group raised more than $1 billion through public listings. MiniMax’s shares more than doubled on their first day of trading, while Zhipu’s stock has climbed 36% since its debut.

China's Resource and Compute Gap With OpenAI Remains a Major Hurdle

Still, speakers at the Zhongguancun event, held in a technology hub frequently compared to Silicon Valley, warned that market success does not necessarily translate into leadership in cutting-edge AI. Zhipu founder and chief AI scientist Tang Jie said that, “We just released some open-source models, and some might feel excited, thinking Chinese models have surpassed the US,” adding, “But the real answer is that the gap may actually be widening," as quoted by Bloomberg.

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DeepSeek R1 Success Sparks New Wave of Chinese AI Releases

However, the industry leaders acknowledged meaningful progress. The success of DeepSeek’s R1 model in early 2025 triggered a wave of open-source releases from companies ranging from Alibaba to emerging startups, helping Chinese models narrow the gap with offerings from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.

Tencent, Alibaba Outline Next-Generation AI Priorities

Looking ahead, the focus is shifting toward solving next-generation challenges. Yao Shunyu, who recently joined Tencent from OpenAI, said Tencent is concentrating on applying AI to better serve its massive user base, including integrating its Yuanbao assistant with WeChat chat history, as per the Bloomberg report. Lin pointed to Alibaba’s emphasis on multimodal systems and real-world AI agents, while Tang and Moonshot AI founder Yang Zhilin highlighted updates to their core foundation models.

China’s AI Executives Call for Collaboration Over Internal Rivalry

Despite competitive pressures, Tang urged the industry to avoid internal rivalries. He said China’s AI companies should work together to advance artificial general intelligence, framing the effort as a contribution to global progress rather than a race defined by national rivalry.

FAQs

What did Chinese AI leaders say about catching up with the US?

They said it is unlikely China will overtake US AI leaders in the next three to five years.

Who shared this view at the Beijing summit?

Executives from Alibaba, Tencent and Zhipu AI expressed similar concerns.