Bitcoin price today drops to $69,000: Why Stifel analysts predict BTC USD could crash further to hit $38,000?

Bitcoin price BTC USD prediction: The outlook for Bitcoin is turning darker as analysts race to estimate how far the current sell-off could go. One of the latest warnings comes from Stifel, the long-established financial services firm based in St. Louis, which predicts that the downturn may still have room to run.

BTC USD Price Prediction: Stifel Says Bitcoin Could Fall to $38,000

Stifel’s analysts forecast that the Bitcoin price USD could fall as low as 38,000 dollars, as per a report. In a note to clients, the team led by Barry B. Bannister said that, "Already down -41% from the high, bitcoin super-bears have followed a linear trend suggesting a potential low of~$38K," as quoted by CoinDesk.

Historical Bitcoin Crashes Point to Possible Bottom

Their analysis looks back at previous crashes. Bitcoin dropped 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022. By drawing a straight line across the lowest points of those declines, the analysts see the current trend pointing toward a possible bottom near 38,000 dollars.


Also read: Why is crypto crashing today? Bitcoin price (BTC USD), Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Avalanche fall as market loses $900 billion

Bitcoin Price USD Today Drops Below $70,000

This warning follows a sharp reversal from Bitcoin’s rally above 126,000 dollars in October. Since then, the price has slid to around $70,000, a level last seen in November 2024. On Thursday, BTC USD price crashed to $69,333.15 at the time of writing.

Benjamin Button Analogy Explains Bitcoin’s Changing Trend

To explain the shift in Bitcoin’s behavior, the Stifel team used an analogy from the film 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'. They said Bitcoin once appeared to grow stronger as traditional money weakened, helped by its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and ongoing dollar money printing.

Bitcoin’s Relationship With the Dollar Reverses Since 2025

That relationship has changed. Since 2025, Bitcoin has started moving in the same direction as the dollar rather than against it. This has happened even as the Dollar Index has slipped nearly 1% this year, extending a decline of almost 10% from last year.

The analysts said, "Prior to 2025, Bitcoin rose when the dollar fell and Global M2 money supply (converted to dollars) rose, thus “aging backward” versus fiat, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed," as quoted by CoinDesk.

Also read: XRP price hits multi-month low – will the altcoin fall to $1? Key support levels investors should watch amid crypto market crash

Nasdaq and Growth Stocks Driving BTC Price USD Volatility

Bitcoin has also become more closely tied to traditional markets, especially the Nasdaq 100 and other growth stocks. It has tended to rise when the Federal Reserve sounded supportive and fall when the tone turned restrictive. Although the Fed cut interest rates in its final three meetings of 2025, the messaging remained cautious, pushing back against expectations of faster cuts, as per the CoinDesk report.

Rising Tech Borrowing Costs Could Pressure Bitcoin Prices

According to the analysts, that cautious tone is a concern. Technology companies are borrowing more and facing higher costs, which could tighten financial conditions. If stock valuations come under pressure, they warn, Bitcoin could face additional downside as well.

FAQs

Why are analysts warning about Bitcoin dropping to $38,000?
Past crash patterns suggest deeper declines, and Bitcoin is already down 41% from its peak.

How is Bitcoin linked to the stock market?
It closely follows Nasdaq 100 and growth stocks, rising during dovish Fed moves and falling on hawkish signals.