Bitcoin price set for another bull run? Analyst spots 2023 pattern as ETF outflows plunge to $95 million, flags key BTC USD levels

Bitcoin (BTC USD) price prediction: Bitcoin's latest decline hasn't stopped one analyst from looking for signs of a recovery. Tim Warren believes the cryptocurrency is showing a pattern that appeared before previous bull runs. Even as investor sentiment weakens and money continues to leave US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin (BTC USD) 200-day moving average brings back memories of previous market cycles

Warren reportedly pointed out to similarities between BTC USD current price movement & patterns from earlier market cycles. He pointed to the cryptocurrency breaking above its bear market trendline and 200-day moving average before returning to test that average, as per a Benzinga report.

He said similar movements appeared during the 2014-2015 and 2018-2019 cycles. So Warren believes the current market is showing a comparable setup.


Investor sentiment, meanwhile, has weakened. Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index has entered extreme fear territory for the first time since August. However, the cryptocurrency was still trading 17% higher than the last time the index reached a similar level.

Warren described the difference between sentiment and price performance as a healthy correction. He also said he was buying spot Bitcoin around its 200-day moving average.

BTC USD price outlook: Bitcoin analyst watches $72,900, $71,600 and $68,400

Warren identified three price zones to watch if Bitcoin faces further selling pressure, $72,900, $71,600 and $68,400. He described these as "fair value gap zones".

A decline towards $68,400 would not necessarily change his constructive outlook. However, a fall below the broader bear market low near $57,700 would reduce his confidence that the level would hold from 90% to around 70%.

Warren has also moved away from relying on Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle. He stopped following the model around 18 months ago after the current cycle's low arrived in July rather than October, which was the timing the model had suggested.

He believes institutional capital now has a greater influence on Bitcoin's price movements than halving-related supply changes.

Bitcoin ETF outflows fall for a third consecutive day

The latest ETF figures show that investors are still pulling money from Bitcoin funds, although the pace of withdrawals has eased.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $95 million in net outflows on November 10, according to Farside data cited by Cryptopolitan. Withdrawals had reached $430 million on November 5, $412 million on November 6 and $201 million on November 9.

Tuesday's figure was approximately 53% lower than the previous session. November's cumulative withdrawals, however, had reached around $1.6 billion.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $78.2 million in outflows, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $36.8 million. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) attracted $20 million.

IBIT also extended its outflow streak to eight consecutive sessions, with approximately $1.73 billion leaving the fund since October 30.

Stock ETFs attract billions as Bitcoin funds face withdrawals

The movement in Bitcoin ETFs contrasts with the strong inflows into US-listed stock funds.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said US-listed ETFs attracted approximately $12 billion per day over five trading sessions. All 17 funds with the highest inflows during that period invested in stocks.

Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) were among the largest beneficiaries.

The inflows came during an AI-led stock market selloff that wiped out Bitcoin's post-midterm rally.

Bitcoin was trading at $73,000 level, as of Wednesday.