Bitcoin price could crash to $40K: Luke Gromen explains why gold may outperform BTC USD in 2026

Bitcoin price (BTC USD) prediction 2026: Global macro strategist Luke Gromen, long known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin as a hedge against declining dollar value, is signaling caution for the near-term outlook of the cryptocurrency. In a recent podcast, Gromen warned that Bitcoin could slide toward $40,000, a stark contrast to his previous optimism, as per a report.

Gold and Select Equities May Outperform Bitcoin (BTC USD) in 2026

Gromen emphasized that his long-term view hasn’t changed: he still believes currency debasement will drive investors toward scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, as per The Street. However, he now suggests that gold and select equities may offer a safer or more predictable way to play that trade over the coming years.

He noted that, “Basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid,” as quoted by The Street.


A key warning for Gromen is Bitcoin’s inability to make new highs relative to gold. This lack of breakout, combined with a recent technical breakdown, has raised concerns about the cryptocurrency’s risk-reward profile.

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Historical Patterns Suggest Potential 65%–70% BTC USD Price Declines

Historical patterns indicate that similar technical failures have been followed by sharp declines, between 65% and 70%, each time, as per the report.

Quantum Computing Risks Could Affect Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

Gromen said the size of Bitcoin in his portfolio prompted him to reduce positions, anticipating further downside. He also pointed to growing discussions about quantum computing risks. While most traders view these threats as distant, they could push long-term holders to hedge or trim their Bitcoin exposure.

He said that, “If I thought quantum was a risk I wanted to at least hedge somewhat, I would start to take some off the table,” and also pointed out to what he perceives as whale selling alongside weak price action, as quoted by The Street.

Macro Factors Cloud Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook

The broader economic backdrop adds to the caution. Weak US economic data, volatility in equity markets, and concerns about the artificial intelligence sector are all weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Analysts are also questioning whether the gains driven by US spot Bitcoin ETFs can be sustained under these conditions.

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Gromen warned that, “The first half of next year is going to be ugly," adding that if Bitcoin’s sell-off is not solely driven by technology or quantum-related fears, “basically everything except gold and the dollar” could struggle until broader macro conditions reset, as quoted by The Street.

FAQs

Why is Luke Gromen cautious about Bitcoin now?
He sees technical and macro risks that could push BTC toward $40,000.

Is quantum computing really a threat to Bitcoin?
It’s mostly a distant risk, but growing discussions may influence long-term holders to hedge.