‘Biggest tax refund ever’? Trump teases huge returns, but filing rules could change

Biggest tax refund 2026: As the new year begins, tax season is officially underway, and many Americans may be in line for larger refunds than they’re used to. Economists say refunds in the first half of this year could be noticeably bigger, driven in part by US president Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which introduced a series of new deductions and credits.

Bigger tax refunds expected in 2026: Average refunds could rise by $300 to $1,000

According to the Tax Foundation, the average taxpayer could receive between $300 and $1,000 more than last year, as per a report. But while the promise of a bigger refund is grabbing attention, the IRS is also rolling out changes that could affect how taxpayers get their money.

IRS shifts away from paper checks

One major shift is the move away from paper checks. Following an executive order signed by Trump to modernize federal payments, most transactions with the government will now be handled electronically, with limited exceptions, as per The Mirror report. The IRS is urging taxpayers to choose direct deposit if they want to receive refunds quickly, meaning having bank account and routing information ready is now essential.


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IRS to send simpler math error notices

Taxpayers should also expect clearer communication from the IRS if mistakes are made. Last year, the US Senate unanimously passed legislation to simplify IRS notices. As a result, the agency will send math error notices when it detects basic arithmetic or clerical mistakes on tax returns, rather than launching more complex review processes.

Standard deduction increases for 2025 tax year

The new tax law brings several changes that could directly affect refund amounts. The standard deduction for the 2025 tax year is rising by $750 to $15,750 for single filers and married individuals filing separately. Married couples filing jointly will see a larger increase of $1,500, bringing their standard deduction to $31,500, as per The Mirror report.

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Standard deduction increases for 2025 tax year

Workers earning overtime may also benefit. Single filers can avoid paying taxes on up to $12,500 in overtime income, while joint filers can deduct up to $25,000 of overtime pay.

Overtime income gets new tax relief

Another significant change involves state and local tax deductions. The new law raises the SALT deduction cap to as much as $40,000, up from the previous $10,000 limit, as per The Mirror report. This adjustment could further reduce tax bills or boost refunds for eligible taxpayers.

Tipped workers see tax break on earnings

Tipped workers are also included. Servers, bartenders, and others who earn tips can now avoid paying taxes on up to $25,000 of that income.

FAQs

Will tax refunds really be bigger this year?
Many taxpayers could see larger refunds, with estimates ranging from $300 to $1,000 more on average.

What is causing higher refunds in 2026?
New deductions and credits under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” are a key factor.