Backed into a corner, Iran may unleash hackers, spies, sleeper cells and terror proxies worldwide

Israel has carried out a series of strikes on Iran in recent days. These attacks have destroyed parts of Iran’s nuclear program and weakened its military defense systems. Despite the losses, Iran is still able to respond using irregular warfare methods that have long been part of its strategy, a The Conversation report said.

Israeli Strikes Focus on Nuclear and Military Targets

Israel’s airstrikes have damaged two nuclear sites and destroyed several air defense systems. The attacks took place in different cities and reportedly killed 14 nuclear scientists and some top members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The strikes have also disrupted Iran’s missile and drone programs.

Impact on Iran’s Warfare Capabilities

The strikes have reduced Iran’s ability to use traditional military hardware. It may take time before Iran can return to previous levels of uranium enrichment. However, the country still maintains influence through other channels. Iran’s use of proxy groups, organized crime links, and cyberattacks could still be used for retaliation, the report added.


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Forward Deterrence as a Strategic Tool

Iran’s military strategy, called “forward deterrence,” encourages striking threats outside the country’s borders. This idea dates back to the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War. Groups like the Badr Corps were formed under this doctrine. Iran has since developed relationships with groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis to pursue regional goals.

Quds Force Remains Active

Israel reportedly struck a Quds Force command center in Tehran. It is unclear if its leader, Esmail Qaani, survived. Some of Iran’s partners like Hezbollah and Hamas have also suffered setbacks. However, Iran’s proxy network is still present across the region and can be activated when needed, the report further added.

Iran’s Global Reach

Iran has a history of targeting opponents abroad. These efforts have included kidnappings and assassinations using its Ministry of Intelligence and Quds Force operatives. Several incidents, including attempts in the US and Europe, show the reach of Iran’s network. These threats remain even if military strength has declined.

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Cyberattacks as a Response Option

Iran has also focused on cyber warfare. Following recent Israeli strikes, a cybersecurity firm observed a sharp increase in malicious activity linked to Iran. These cyberattacks may involve disinformation, sabotage, or data theft. Iran is also using AI tools to spread propaganda and false media during conflicts.

Unconventional Threats Still a Concern

While Iran’s conventional military is weakened, its ability to conduct irregular warfare remains. The more Iran is attacked directly, the more likely it is to use these hidden methods. Its network of proxies and cyber operatives can respond without warning and pose long-term challenges for Israel and the US.

FAQs

What is Iran’s 'forward deterrence' strategy?
It is a policy where Iran targets threats outside its borders using proxy groups and cyber tools, aiming to prevent danger before it reaches Iranian territory.

How might Iran respond after Israeli attacks?
Iran could use cyberattacks, intelligence operatives, or proxy groups to target Israeli or US assets without direct military engagement.