After eggs, now ground beef prices are at record high, here’s why, and is Trump behind the steep rise

The cost of ground beef in the United States is beginning to make a dent in the wallets of Americans and weigh down their shopping baskets. In June 2025, the prices of ground beef rose by 10.3% in comparison to the same time in 2024. It surpassed $6 per pound. Meanwhile, the price of steak increased by 12.4% within this period.

Before the rise in ground beef prices, egg prices were hitting the roof. Earlier in 2025, egg prices more than doubled in price in April when compared to March 2024, according to TIME. The sharp rise was due to bird flu outbreaks on US farms, which led to over 23 million birds being culled. Meanwhile, in early July 2025, egg prices have fallen back down to $3.78 per dozen from $6.23 in April. Food prices as a whole have been on the rise by 2.7 percent over the last year.

Over the past 12 months, food prices as a whole have only risen by 2.7%, so what is causing this sharp increase in the price of ground beef?

What factors are causing sharp increase in ground beef prices

Cattle herd sizes at record low

Amid the prevailing high demand for ground beef products in the US, the supply has been a major issue. There have been only 87 million cattle and calves recorded across the country at the beginning of 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). This signifies that cattle herd sizes are at the lowest in the country they have been for almost 75 years.

According to AFBF economist Bernt Nelson, feed steer prices have hit record highs, prompting farmers to sell cattle for meat instead of breeding. Even with high prices, farmers still struggle to make a profit, so many might sell off their remaining cattle because of slim margins. One of the main high costs affecting sustainable profit for cattle ranchers is the price of feed, which ties back to adverse weather from climate change.

Drought

David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, said, “One of the main drivers has been the effects of climate change on beef production in the U.S. This is something that doesn't cause prices to rise overnight, so there's a considerable lag involved,” according to TIME.

A major drought hit the Great Plains states in 2022, forcing many cattle farms to sell their livestock. “What that [drought] does is erase feed for producers. There's less forage availability, so they sell a lot of their animals because it becomes very costly to hold on to them,” Ortega further stated.

A lot of the sold livestock, often slaughtered and turned into beef products, includes “breeding stock,” meaning that in the long term, there is less capacity to breed new cows to keep up with consumer demand.

Uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs

Ortega has said that tariffs have started to play a key role in the rise of beef prices, triggering uncertainty and concerns pertaining to the future. One of the reasons behind the uncertainty is that despite a lot of domestic production, the US still imports a major amount of beef.

Earlier in July 2025, President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff against Brazil. “If these do go into effect, or even higher tariffs [are implemented], then I think we're going to see a notable further increase on things like ground beef and hamburger meat,” Ortega said.

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of beef. It witnessed an increase in sales of meat to the U.S. this year after a trade war between Washington, D.C., and Beijing escalated. In May, Brazilian exports to the U.S. rose by 20%, and current imports from the country are almost double what they were in June 2024, according to the USDA.