2024 US Presidential Election: What will happen if poll is held in seven swing states today? Has conviction dented Trump's edge?

At a time when Donald Trump is facing a jail term in the hush money case, he remains more popular than his rival Joe Biden. Though inflation and unemployment remain the key factors, he maintains an edge over the president in seven swing states. A new survey held six months before the 2024 US Presidential Election shows that the former president will beat the incumbent if elections are held today. According to the Ipsos poll data released Thursday, Trump will beat Biden 37% to 35% overall in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. These are swing states. A swing state is a state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election or residential election, by a swing in votes.

Trump leads Biden in 7 swing states

'Forbes' has reported that in a two-way race, Trump leads Biden by seven points in the Southeastern states of Georgia and North Carolina and by 10 points in the Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But the GOP contender trails Biden by 12 points in the Southwestern states of Arizona and Nevada. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Trump leads Biden in all seven states.

Emerson College and The Hill survey

In another poll conducted by Emerson College and The Hill, it has been found that Trump has an edge over Biden in Arizona (47%-43%), Georgia (45%-41%), Michigan (46%-45%), Nevada (46%-43%), Pennsylvania (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (47%-44%). Interestingly in all these six states, Trump's lead has either remained the same or grown after he was convicted by a Manhattan jury on 34 felony charges.

Trump's lead widens after conviction

The survey also shows that Trump and Biden hold 45% each in Minnesota, which has voted for a Republican candidate for president just three times since the Great Depression. However, Trump's support among independent voters has come down in all these states.

Trump’s support among independent voters came down five points, from 48% to 43%, in Michigan, his support dropped three points, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. On the other hand, Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”

FAQs:

What does the latest survey indicate about the 2024 US Presidential Election?
A new survey held six months before the 2024 US Presidential Election shows that the former president will beat the incumbent if elections are held today.

What is a swing state in the US political system?
A swing state is a state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election or presidential election, by a swing in votes.