$20 billion at risk? Nvidia’s China exposure triggers pre-earnings alarm from Bank of America

Nvidia's China revenue is suffering big time, as new US export regulations have impacted the chipmaker directly. Bank of America now projected that Nvidia may face a loss of about $15 billion to $20 billion per year in revenue because of the export restrictions, as per a report.

Pressure Mounts for Nvidia

As Nvidia gets ready to report earnings on May 28, the increasing China loss is placing further pressure on the company, according to GuruFocus.

Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research, admitted Nvidia's new offerings, such as the newly released GB300 and Vera Rubin chips, are stunning, but he emphasized the company has to develop new ways of expanding rapidly to make up for lost demand in China, as per GuruFocus.

Big Tech Capital Spending to Surge in 2025

Even though Nvidia shares fell 15% this year, analysts continue to be bullish, according to the report. Reitzes highlighted that the AI race is existential for giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, with demand for Nvidia's chips still high, even as some firms develop custom silicon, as per GuruFocus.

China Loss Puts More Strain

While, Bank of America's Vivek Arya called the China situation a "vanishing act" for Nvidia, pointing out that there is a need for hyperscalers to increase their capital spending to bridge the revenue gap, according to the report.

Arya also cautioned that the long-term market opportunity for Nvidia's data centre business may have reduced by 20%. Still, Bank of America projects Big Tech capital spending to increase 35% in 2025, according to GuruFocus.

Nvidia Revenue Forecast

As per the report, Nvidia is expected to post $43.12 billion in revenue and 89 cents in EPS for the upcoming quarter.

FAQs

Why is Nvidia’s China revenue declining?
Nvidia's revenue from China is suffering due to tightening US export controls.

How much revenue is Nvidia potentially losing from China?
Bank of America estimates that Nvidia could lose $15 billion to $20 billion annually due to the export restrictions, reported GuruFocus.