Health sector workers from Northern Ireland’s 3 biggest unions announce 24-hour strike over pay dispute

The EU is Britain's biggest trading partner, accounting for 47% of its trade in 2019. In case of no deal, Britain would lose zero-tariff and zero-quota access to the European Single Market of 450 million consumers. Britain would default to World Trade Organization (WTO) terms in its trade with the 27-state bloc, making it in effect as distant to its biggest trading partner as Australia.

Britain would impose its new UK global tariff (UKGT) on EU imports while the EU would impose its common external tariff on UK imports. Non-tariff barriers could hinder trade, with prices predicted to rise for consumers and businesses.

A no-trade deal would wipe an extra 2% off British economic output in 2021 while driving up inflation, unemployment and public borrowing, Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast. The shock would be felt unevenly across continental Europe, with those likely to be hit worst including Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Malta and Poland. The Halle Institute for Economic Research has forecast that EU companies exporting to Britain could lose more than 700,000 jobs if no trade deal is agreed.

Both sides want to avoid a hard border between the United Kingdom's Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the EU. Implementing the Northern Ireland protocol of the 2020 Brexit Treaty will be complicated without a trade agreement. Under the treaty, Northern Ireland remains, in effect, in the EU's single market for goods and aligned to its customs rules after Dec. 31 unlike the rest of the United Kingdom.

Exactly how checks, regulations and paperwork will work between Britain and Northern Ireland is not yet clear. But without a trade deal, the divide between Britain and Northern Ireland would become more distinct. Brexit without a trade deal could allow Northern Ireland to become a back door into the EU's single market, thus raising the spectre of a hard border on the island of Ireland for the first time since a 1998 peace deal.

Both sides would likely blame each other for any chaos after a no-deal exit and Europe would be split just as it faces the challenges of China's rise, Russian assertiveness and the continuing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a failure could shake the bloc that was created to bind the ruined nations of Europe into a global power after World War Two.

The EU would lose one of Europe's leading military and intelligence powers, its second-largest economy and the only financial capital to rival New York. Britain would be alone, left far more dependent on its alliance with the United States. Britain is also pushing ahead with legislation known as the Internal Market Bill that would allow it to break parts of the 2020 Brexit Treaty relating to Northern Ireland, making it unclear how far it would implement the divorce deal.

London, the world's international financial capital, is largely ready for Brexit as a trade deal was never going to cover Britain's most globally competitive industry. While most banks and investors have found ways to navigate Britain's departure from the bloc, the long-term impact of an acrimonious Brexit would be unpredictable and the EU would likely try to grab more market share from the City of London.