Australia Election 2025: PM Albanese sits pretty, Dutton seeks to defy Trump factor and Labor win predictions

Australians are heading to the polls on Saturday (May 3, 2025) with Labor predicted to form government, according to pre-election poll surveys. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese led the Labour Party's campaign while principal opposition and Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton sought support for his party. One of the external factors which has become a major issue in the election is US President Donald Trump and his tariff war.

While Labor holds 78 seats and the opposition coalition 57 in the 150-member House of Representatives, both leaders are making final appeals, with Albanese focused on key states and Dutton aiming to defy polling predictions.

Early voting has been substantial, and both leaders express confidence, setting the stage for a potentially close election outcome. Dutton is attempting to defy historical trends. No party has formed government after one term in opposition since 1931.


Public polling indicates Labor is in a favorable position to form government, with a chance to retain a majority. The prime minister, however, is cautious as seeks a second consecutive three-year mandate from the voters.

"I don't take the Australian people for granted. I'm working my guts out to ensure there's a majority government," Mr Albanese told reporters in Brisbane on Friday.

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The major parties' seat tallies have shifted since the last election held in 2022 due to defections and redistributions. Labor currently holds 78 seats, while the coalition has 57.

Despite facing unfavorable polling data, the opposition leader believes the coalition can still gain seats. Early voting has been significant.

Almost 5.7 million people had already voted, and over 1.5 million postal ballots were returned by Thursday (May 1) night. This accounts for approximately 40 percent of eligible voters.

Dutton anticipated "big surprises" on election night. He said the election has similarities to 2019, where polling differed from the actual result. He also claimed candidates have received "pretty remarkable" feedback at pre-poll booths.

Albanese campaigned in Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania on Friday. Dutton began in South Australia, aiming to win Boothby and retain Sturt, before heading to Western Australia to target seats lost in 2022.

Greens leader Adam Bandt voted in his electorate of Melbourne. He predicted a "renter rebellion" at the election.

A seat-by-seat poll released on Thursday by YouGov predicted the coalition could sink to its lowest seat total since the 1940s.

YouGov projected Labor would receive 52.9 percent of the national two-party preferred vote, compared to the coalition's 47.1 percent. This would give the government 84 seats against the opposition's 47.

Labor's support was slightly less at 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent for the coalition on a two-party preferred basis in the final Freshwater Strategy Poll published by The Australian Financial Review on Friday. It gave Labor 74 seats and the coalition 64.

The Trump factor

The opposition's campaign has faced missteps and backtracks. There have been comparisons between Dutton and US President Trump.

While Trump's tariff wars is one of the issues, local problems like the increasing inflation and costs of living along with the poor state of housing which has resulted in high rents and prices are the major domestic concerns.

Despite Labor's improved electoral prospects, its primary vote has not significantly increased with Australians increasingly looking to minor parties and independents.

Voting is compulsory in Australia with over 90 per cent of those eligible taking part in the last federal election in 2022.