Integration's a big challenge for ASEAN

With a combined economy bigger than India or South Korea and a total population of over half a billion people, ASEAN has the potential to become an economic force that could rival China, India, Brazil and Russia. The absence of ASEAN from investors��� radar screens as a unified economic unit is due to the lack of integration of the bloc���s economies and financial markets. Both local and international investors still widely view the South-East Asian region as 10 separate economies due to differences in regulations, business environment, institutional capacity, and culture. Thus, further integration of ASEAN is necessary in order to maximise intra-regional synergies and keep the region relevant to the international economy and investors.

ASEAN has earned its way to the global high table. Its member countries have weathered the financial storm well. Economic activity did contract in some open economies such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, but the worst is over, and their economies and financial systems have suffered no collateral damage. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Vietnam are emerging as Asia���s two outperformers. We estimate that ASEAN���s purchasing power could double by 2023, creating significant opportunities in consumer products and services.

All of this reflects the fact that ASEAN economies have built up their resilience through years of reforms and restructuring since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. The accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves has helped maintain investor confidence and limit undue volatility while a well-capitalised banking sector has been crucial to ensuring the smooth running of the region���s economy. Indeed, the ASEAN region has all the ingredients to become a global economic force. In 2008, its 10 members had a combined GDP of $1.5 trillion, 580 million people, and total trade of $1.7 trillion (26% of it intra-regional). If ASEAN were a single country, it would be the world���s 10th-largest economy and the third-most populous country. Counting only extra-regional trade, ASEAN is the world���s fifth-largest trading power, after the US, Germany, China, and Japan. In recent years, ASEAN���s free-trade agreements with China, India, Japan, and South Korea have deepened the region���s economic links with the rest of Asia.

Also, ASEAN as a combined economy would rank among the world���s top 10 in terms of foreign direct investment inflows. Fears of China taking every FDI dollar from ASEAN have not been matched by reality. ASEAN still managed to attract $60 billion of FDI in 2008, with intra-regional investment accounting for a sizeable portion as foreign investors, especially from within Asia, see countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam as alternative manufacturing bases as the cost of doing business in China rises. The region���s economic integration is still at an early stage and much more work is required to remove barriers to the trade of goods and the free flow of capital, information and talent. These measures are relevant to businesses as they enhance access to the whole ASEAN consumer market from any one member country.
Amid the rise of China and India, there are ongoing concerns that some of South-East Asian nations may be marginalised. This is primarily a result of the economic and political diversity of ASEAN members. For example, the World Bank���s Doing Business Survey 2010 ranks Singapore as the easiest place in the world to do business while it ranks Laos 167th out of 181 countries. Politically, ASEAN���s members range from Indonesia, the world���s third-largest democracy (after the US and India), to Myanmar at the other end of the spectrum. Brunei���s economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas. Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have considerable agricultural production bases.

By contrast, Singapore has few, if any, natural resources and relies on imports for local consumption and manufacturing, financial services and trading drive its economy.

Clearly, ASEAN���s smaller members need a common platform to represent their interests and ASEAN could become that key channel through which these members can make their voices heard on the global stage. The challenge for ASEAN leaders converging in Thailand this month for the 15th ASEAN Summit is therefore to convince the business sector and investors that ASEAN is a workable concept. The ASEAN Charter, adopted by all 10 members in 2008, is an important step forward towards integration. The plan to establish an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015, while ambitious, is necessary to push the region���s integration forward.

By Tai Hui
(Regional Head of Research, South-East Asia, Standard Chartered Bank)