Growth in US energy production to outstrip consumption growth

MUMBAI: The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the world's biggest consumer of hydrocarbons will become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020.

The country's crude oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, is expected to rise sharply over the next decade thanks to the advent and continuing improvement of advanced crude oil production technologies. The EIA forecasts US domestic production of crude oil to increase sharply with an annual growth averaging 234,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 2011 through 2019, when production reaches 7.5 million bpd.

This, it expects, will keep a tab on the international oil prices in the near term. "The Brent spot crude oil price declines from $111 per barrel in 2011 to $96 per barrel in 2015. After 2015, the Brent price increases, reaching $163 per barrel in 2040, as growing demand leads to the development of more costly resources. World liquids consumption grows from 88 million bpd in 2011 to 113 million bpd in 2040, driven by demand in China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies," mentioned IEA's report.

Changes in the way energy is used and improving energy efficiency would mean in year 2040 an average US citizen would be consuming 15% less energy as compared to 2011.

Similarly, the country, which was importing 29% of its total energy consumed in 2007, will import just 9% in 2040.The net imports of energy are set to decline both in absolute terms and as a share of total U.S. energy consumption reflecting increased domestic petroleum and natural gas production, increased use of biofuels, lower demand resulting from rising energy prices and the adoption of new efficiency standards for vehicles.