Where could the next big earthquake strike? Scientists develop a new method that successfully identified a high-risk fault zone in Kamchatka

Scientists at the University of California, Riverside (UCR) have developed a new method that could help identify where major earthquakes are most likely to occur, potentially giving authorities and communities a valuable new tool for long-term disaster preparedness.

The technique does not attempt to predict the exact day or time an earthquake will strike.

Instead, it looks for sections of major faults where tectonic stress has been building over years, helping researchers determine which parts of a fault may be most vulnerable to a future rupture.


The approach received a significant real-world test in Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula, where researchers had previously identified a locked section of the subduction zone. A massive earthquake later ruptured the same area.

New earthquake research focuses on location, not timing

Earthquake forecasting has long been one of the most difficult challenges in geophysics. While scientists can identify regions that are highly prone to earthquakes, accurately determining exactly where and when a major rupture will occur remains beyond current capabilities.

The UCR team's research takes a different approach.

Rather than searching for signals that might indicate an imminent earthquake, scientists examined the slow deformation of Earth's surface. Tectonic plates can remain locked against each other for decades or centuries, allowing strain to accumulate along the fault.

“Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain,” said UCR geophysicist Gareth Funning. “This strain can be measured.”

The study, led by Funning and fellow UCR geophysicist Axel Periollat, was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

GPS data reveals where stress is building

The researchers used GPS observations to track extremely small movements of Earth's surface. Although these shifts are almost imperceptible to people, they can reveal how tectonic plates are interacting deep underground.

Their algorithm processes these measurements to locate sections of a fault that are effectively locked.

Such areas are known as asperities. They resist the movement of tectonic plates and can accumulate large amounts of strain. When the accumulated stress is eventually released, these sections can become the source of powerful earthquakes.

The method is particularly relevant to subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is forced beneath another. These boundaries are responsible for some of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded and are also capable of generating destructive tsunamis.

Kamchatka earthquake provided a crucial test

Kamchatka, in Russia's Far East, provided an unusual opportunity to test the method.

Before a major earthquake struck the region, the researchers' analysis had identified a locked section beneath the Kamchatka Peninsula where strain appeared to be concentrated. When the earthquake eventually occurred, the rupture extended through the area highlighted by their model.

The result was significant because the researchers were not simply mapping an earthquake after it happened. Their assessment of where strain was accumulating had been made beforehand.

“We had an idea where the strain was accumulating based on a relatively limited data set,” Periollat said. “Seeing it work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential.”

The researchers caution, however, that the result should not be interpreted as an earthquake prediction. Their model identified a likely rupture location, but it did not establish when the earthquake would happen.

Why two giant Kamchatka earthquakes behaved differently

The research also offers clues about why earthquakes in the same region can produce very different consequences.

Kamchatka experienced enormous earthquakes in 1952 and 2025. Both were capable of generating major tsunamis, yet the 2025 event produced a considerably smaller tsunami than the earlier earthquake.

According to the researchers, one possible explanation is that the shallowest part of the fault moved less during the more recent rupture.

That distinction matters because the amount and location of fault movement can strongly influence how much the seafloor is displaced—and consequently how large a tsunami may become.

The new technique, however, is not designed to forecast tsunami height. Nor can it determine the timing of an earthquake.

Scientists are testing the method around the world

The UCR team is now examining whether the same approach can work across other earthquake-prone regions.

Researchers are applying the technique to major subduction zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and the Pacific Northwest.

These regions present different geological challenges. Some faults release tectonic energy through slow movement rather than a single catastrophic earthquake, making them more complicated to analyse.

The researchers are also exploring whether the approach could be adapted to California's fault systems.

Funning pointed to the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, which contains both creeping and locked sections. Scientists are investigating whether similar measurements could help distinguish the areas that may pose the greatest future earthquake risk.

The biggest challenge is beneath the ocean

One of the limitations of the new earthquake research is the availability of data.

GPS stations installed on land can provide detailed information about how the ground is moving. But many of the world's most dangerous faults are located offshore, where conventional GPS monitoring is not possible in the same way.

That creates a major blind spot for scientists studying earthquakes and tsunami hazards.

Researchers in Japan have begun deploying acoustic instruments on the seafloor to measure slow changes in the Earth's crust over long periods. Similar monitoring projects are being considered in places such as Chile and the Pacific Northwest.

New satellite observations could also eventually help fill some of the gaps in areas where ground-based measurements are limited.

Better earthquake maps could strengthen disaster preparedness

The researchers believe their method could eventually become another tool for assessing seismic hazards.

Knowing which sections of a major fault are accumulating the most strain could help governments and communities focus earthquake preparedness efforts on areas facing the greatest potential danger. It could also improve long-term assessments of earthquake and tsunami risk.

But the scientists stress that better identification of earthquake-prone areas should not create a false sense of security.

“You can't forecast the exact earthquake,” Funning said, emphasising that preparedness remains essential, particularly in highly active seismic regions such as Southern California.

The researchers' broader goal is therefore not to promise precise earthquake forecasts, but to improve understanding of where the next major ruptures could occur.

“With better observations and continued monitoring, we can learn much more about Earth’s most dangerous faults,” Periollat said.