US midterms 2026: How elections could reshape Trump’s power and control of Congress

The 2026 US midterm elections could determine how much room President Donald Trump has to pursue his agenda during the final two years of his term, with control of Congress up for grabs in November.

Trump himself will not be on the ballot, but the outcome of the congressional races will directly affect his ability to pass legislation, secure key appointments and advance his priorities. The US House of Representatives and Senate together make up Congress, the legislative branch of the federal government.

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According to CBS, Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both chambers, leaving the party with little room for losses if it wants to retain control of Congress after the November 3 elections.

What exactly is at stake?

All 435 seats in the House are being contested in 2026, while 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are up for election. House members serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.

The numbers make the House particularly sensitive to even a small shift in seats. CBS reported that Democrats would need to flip four districts, assuming they retain their existing seats, to take control of the chamber.

The Senate is a different calculation. Democrats would need to win four Republican-held Senate seats to gain control, but each race is statewide, making the path different from flipping individual House districts.

The US Vote Foundation explains that the congressional races matter to the president because Congress can pass laws, alter legislation and determine whether to support or reject elements of a president's agenda. The balance of power in Congress therefore has a direct bearing on how easily a president can govern.

What happens if Republicans keep Congress?

If Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate, Trump would continue to have a Congress broadly aligned with his party during the final two years of his term.

That would give Republicans greater control over the legislative agenda and make it easier for the administration to seek congressional backing for its priorities.

The Senate majority is also particularly important for presidential appointments. The chamber plays a key role in confirming Cabinet officials, federal judges and senior officials.

The House, meanwhile, has the power to initiate impeachment proceedings and plays a central role in budget legislation, according to CBS.

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What if Democrats take the House?

A Democratic-controlled House would give the opposition significantly greater leverage over Trump's agenda.

Congressional legislation requires cooperation between the two chambers and the president. A House controlled by Democrats could therefore make it harder for the administration to advance legislation that does not have bipartisan support.

The House would also gain greater oversight power over the administration and could initiate impeachment proceedings, although impeachment by the House is separate from conviction and removal, which requires action by the Senate.

What if Democrats take the Senate?

A Democratic Senate would alter the balance of power over Trump's nominations.

The Senate's role in confirming Cabinet members, federal judges and other senior officials means a change in control could make the confirmation process more difficult for the administration.

If Republicans retained the House but Democrats controlled the Senate, Trump could still face a divided Congress, with the two chambers controlled by different parties.

And if Democrats win both chambers?

A Congress controlled by Democrats would create the most significant shift in the legislative balance facing Trump for the remainder of his presidency.

The US Vote Foundation notes that the composition of Congress can substantially affect the success of a president's agenda because lawmakers have the authority to pass, modify or reject legislation.

That does not mean a president loses all power after losing congressional support. The executive branch retains powers of its own, but a Congress controlled by the opposing party can use legislation, spending decisions, oversight and its constitutional powers to constrain the administration.

Why Trump still matters even though he is not on the ballot

Trump's name will not appear on the midterm ballot, but his presidency is likely to remain a central factor in the campaign.

CBS reported that historically, the president's party has lost congressional seats in most midterm elections since the 1930s. The US Vote Foundation similarly notes that voters have often shifted away from the president's party in midterm House elections, with the president's approval rating closely associated with the scale of his party's gains or losses.

The 2026 election will therefore serve as an important political test for Trump's presidency, but the result should not be treated as a forecast of the 2028 presidential election.

The US Vote Foundation points to the mixed historical record: among 13 midterms between 1952 and 2012 in which a sitting president's party lost House seats, that party subsequently retained the White House in six cases and lost it in six others.

What voters are focused on

The economy and cost of living are expected to be major issues in the campaign. CBS reported that polling has consistently pointed to pocketbook concerns, including the impact of higher prices and gas costs, as key issues for voters.

Trump's own political standing could also influence Republican candidates, particularly in competitive races. CBS reported that Trump has pledged to campaign in closely fought states and congressional districts, while some Republican candidates have sought to keep their distance from the White House.

When are the midterms?

The 2026 midterm elections will be held on November 3. Primary elections to select Republican and Democratic candidates have been taking place across the states ahead of the general election.

For Trump, the stakes are therefore not about winning another presidential term this November. They are about what kind of Congress he will face during the final two years of his current presidency and how much congressional support or opposition will shape what he can accomplish.