Trump wanted Canada closer to America; Ottawa is now flirting with the EU instead

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and repeated calls to make Canada the “51st state” have pushed Ottawa to seek closer economic and security ties with Europe. The shift culminated in European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposing that Canada become the European Union’s first associate member.

The proposal could expand cooperation in trade, defence, technology, energy, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. It would not make Canada a full EU member, but could create a partnership close to membership without formally joining the bloc.

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Trump’s pressure changes Canada’s calculations

Canada sends about 70% of its exports to the United States. The two countries also have the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship, worth nearly US$900 billion last year.

Trump’s tariffs and statehood remarks have created pressure on Ottawa to reduce its dependence on Washington. Trade talks between the US and Canada also broke down as both sides imposed measures against each other.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has rejected any arrangement that could weaken Canada’s sovereignty. He has instead called for a “unique alliance” with the EU.

Europe offers Canada a new route

The EU is already Canada’s second-largest trading partner. Their CETA trade agreement has removed 99% of tariffs on Canadian goods exports, although the agreement is still not fully ratified by all EU member states.

The new proposal would take the relationship beyond trade. Areas under discussion include digital technology, energy, liquefied natural gas, critical minerals, defence procurement, batteries and Arctic cooperation.

Canada has also joined the EU’s Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, defence fund. It became the first non-European country to take part in the programme.

Why Canada is attractive to the EU

Canada has energy supplies and critical minerals that Europe needs. It is also an Arctic nation with strong defence and intelligence links with European countries.

Canada has recently looked to Europe for defence equipment, including German submarines and Swedish airborne early-warning aircraft.

The wider goal is to build supply chains and strategic partnerships that are less dependent on the United States and China.

What does associate membership mean?

The proposed status is not the same as full EU membership. It is expected to give Canada deeper access to European cooperation while allowing it to remain outside the bloc’s formal political structure.

The details are not yet settled. Discussions could include easier movement for Canadians in Europe, joint defence production, technology cooperation and closer economic rules.

The idea is also legally complicated. EU treaties are designed for European countries seeking membership, while Canada is outside the region.

The ‘Trump effect’

The BBC reported that EU officials privately link the renewed courtship of Canada to Trump’s second term and his use of trade and security ties as negotiating tools.

Mark Camilleri of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association told the BBC that Canada wants to double its non-US trade over the next decade and that deeper EU ties would be central to that plan.

An April Nanos poll cited by the BBC found that more than four in five Canadians supported stronger ties with the EU. Nearly three in five supported Canada joining the bloc.

Can Canada replace the US market?

Not quickly. Canada-US trade is far larger than Canada-EU trade. Bilateral trade between Canada and the EU stood at about US$130 billion last year, compared with almost US$900 billion between Canada and the US.

Canadian companies also depend on supply chains built around the US market. Replacing those links would take years.

The EU also remains cautious. European governments may support closer ties with Canada, but some are wary of provoking Trump or giving a non-member country special access.

What happens next?

Canada and the EU are expected to discuss the proposal at a summit in Montreal. Working groups will then have to address the legal and technical details.

For now, Trump’s pressure has produced a clear diplomatic result: Canada is looking beyond Washington, while Europe sees an opportunity to deepen ties with a country that shares its democratic and strategic concerns.