Trump likely willing to end Iran war while giving up the Hormuz fight

U.S. President Donald Trump has told his aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed, and deal with reopening it at a later stage, according to a Wall Street Journal report on Monday citing administration officials.

In recent days, Trump and his aides concluded that any effort to reopen the chokepoint would extend the conflict beyond his planned four to six weeks. He decided the U.S. should focus on its main aims that are weakening Iran’s navy and its missile stockpiles, and then scale down the fighting, while using diplomatic pressure to push Tehran to restore normal trade flows. If that does not work, officials said Washington would ask its allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead in reopening the strait, WSJ reported.

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A U.S. withdrawal from the conflict could help reduce tensions and improve the chances of reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a key route whose disruption has pushed oil prices higher. Restoring supplies from the Middle East would benefit major importers such as India and China, and ease concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.

Over the past month, Trump has shared different views in public on how to handle the closure of the waterway, showing a broader pattern of mixed messaging on the war. At times, he has threatened to bomb civilian energy facilities if the route is not reopened by a set deadline. At other times, he has downplayed its importance to the U.S. and suggested that it is an issue for other countries to deal with.

For India, reliance on the Strait of Hormuz is significant. Around 50% of its crude oil, 60% of its LPG, and 70% of its LNG imports pass through this key maritime route. Continued disruption would not only keep prices very high, but could also lead to supply shortages and uncertainty over the availability of oil and gas.

Also Read: India earns diplomatic spurs by navigating choppy waters of Hormuz

"The worsening of the Middle East crisis appears to be upending the post-COVID stability in global supply chain networks. The weaponisation of key maritime trade routes does not augur well for global trade," QuantEco Research wrote in a note.

So far in March, the first full month of the war, an average of just six vessels a day have passed through the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, in either direction. This is far below the usual level of about 135 vessels a day, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Also Read: Iran’s grip on Hormuz is tighter than ever after a month of war

During this period, around 80% of the few oil tankers leaving the strait have been Iranian, or from countries that have friendly ties with Iran, the data shows.

Electronic interference in the Hormuz area has disrupted ship-tracking systems, and some vessels have switched off their transponders, affecting the accuracy and timing of the data. Even so, there are clear signs that Tehran’s control over the strait is increasing.

Bloomberg also reported that almost all vessels now crossing the strait are using routes approved by Iran — sailing close to its coastline rather than along the Omani side — and often only after holding talks to secure safe passage. In recent days, Malaysia and Thailand have also reported separate deals to release tankers stranded in the Gulf.