Trump's $166 billion tariff refunds may finally be in sight as first payouts expected by May 11

The Trump administration is expected to begin issuing the first refunds of tariffs deemed illegal by the US Supreme Court from around May 11, according to an order filed Tuesday in the US Court of International Trade.

Judge Richard Eaton, who is overseeing the refund process, said a portion of the affected import entries has already moved into the repayment stage.

Also read: US Supreme Court rules against Trump’s global tariffs imposed under emergency law


About 3% of entries subject to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been liquidated through a new system known as Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) and are now in the refund phase, which includes payments by the US Treasury.

The filing noted that roughly 21% of entries have been accepted for duty removal under the CAPE process. As of April 26, about 1.74 million accepted entries had been liquidated and were undergoing refunds.

The repayment exercise could be massive in scale. Court documents indicate the process may cover around $166 billion in duties collected from more than 330,000 importers across roughly 53 million entries.

The refund mechanism had remained unclear after the Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that President Donald Trump lacked the authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA, creating uncertainty for businesses awaiting repayments.

Following the 6–3 ruling that struck down the tariffs as illegal, Trump criticised the decision as “terrible” and “totally defective,” and responded by imposing a fresh 10% global tariff.

US Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s ‘illegal’ tariffs

The US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 against Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, marking a major setback for his administration’s trade policy.

The court held that the president overstepped his authority under IEEPA, a 1977 law traditionally used for sanctions and asset freezes, not broad-based import taxes. The Constitution grants Congress the power to levy tariffs, and the statute does not explicitly authorise their use.

The ruling followed multiple legal challenges from businesses and 12 US states, most led by Democrats, arguing that the administration had bypassed Congress. The cases stemmed from three lawsuits, including one involving small importers and another where a federal judge sided with a family-owned toy company.

Also read: Trump’s second act on tariffs takes effect with 10% duty on the world. For now

During hearings, both conservative and liberal justices had expressed scepticism over the administration’s claim that trade deficits constituted a national emergency justifying tariffs.

The decision leaves open the possibility for tariffs under other laws, and officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have indicated the administration may explore alternative legal routes.

Trump’s global tariffs that rattled the world

Tariffs have been central to Trump’s economic and foreign policy strategy, particularly during his second term, where they triggered widespread disruption in global trade.

The administration imposed sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries, arguing that persistent trade deficits posed a threat to US national security and economic stability. On April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” Trump announced broad tariffs on most US trading partners using IEEPA.

He also invoked the same law in early 2025 to levy tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, citing the trafficking of fentanyl and other illicit drugs as a national emergency. At times, tariff threats were extended to geopolitical disputes, including India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The measures unsettled financial markets, strained ties with allies and injected uncertainty into the global economy. According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, the tariffs could have a $3 trillion economic impact over a decade if maintained, while potentially generating about $300 billion annually.

US Treasury data showed customs duty receipts hit a record $195 billion in fiscal 2025, with over $133 billion collected under the emergency powers framework by mid-December. Independent estimates suggested the total collections under IEEPA-based tariffs exceeded $175 billion—much of which may now need to be refunded following the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Despite the legal setback, Trump has defended the tariffs as essential to strengthening US finances and boosting domestic manufacturing, warning earlier that striking them down would be a “terrible blow.”