The tiny office with 275 employees blocking Trump’s 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

The small Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with just 275 employees, has unexpectedly become a central player in Washington’s latest political showdown over President Donald Trump’s proposed “one big beautiful bill.” As Congress debates the sweeping tax cut and immigration package, the CBO’s projection—that the bill would add about $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade—has created a major hurdle, especially for Republicans who have spent years criticizing President Joe Biden and Democrats for increasing the national debt.

The White House and GOP lawmakers are pushing back, arguing that the CBO is underestimating the economic growth the bill would spur. They claim that higher-than-expected growth would generate more government revenue, ultimately offsetting the costs. On the other side, Democrats are embracing the CBO's projections as proof that the legislation is fiscally irresponsible.

All about CBO

The Congressional Budget Office was created more than 50 years ago to provide Congress with nonpartisan, objective analysis on budget matters. It is required to produce cost estimates for nearly every bill that moves through congressional committees and often evaluates proposals earlier when requested. In addition to bill assessments, the CBO issues reports each Congress outlining ways to reduce the national debt and publishes cost estimates for presidential proposals, especially those affecting major mandatory programs like Medicare and Social Security.


The office was designed to give Congress an independent alternative to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which is tied to the president’s administration. CBO analysts are selected for their expertise and are expected to remain politically neutral. Political activity, including donations to members of Congress, is prohibited for CBO staff. The current director, Phillip Swagel, previously served in the George W. Bush administration but now heads a strictly nonpartisan organization.

Despite its impartial mission, the CBO has come under fire from Republican leaders who question its economic assumptions. They argue that the office’s long-term GDP growth estimate of 1.8% is too conservative and fails to capture the bill's potential. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed the U.S. economy would “boom like never before” once the legislation is passed, dismissing CBO’s projections as “absurd.”

Criticism of the CBO is not new. Even before the current Congress was seated, GOP lawmakers were already casting doubt on the office’s analyses. In December, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith said the CBO “always predicts a dark future when Republicans propose tax relief.” More recently, House Speaker Mike Johnson criticized the office publicly, claiming on Facebook that the CBO is “notorious for getting things WRONG.”

Republicans also point to a discrepancy from Trump’s first term to argue their case. In 2018, the CBO projected $27 trillion in tax revenue between 2018 and 2024. Actual receipts came in about $1.5 trillion higher, and Republicans argue this proves the CBO consistently underestimates economic outcomes. However, that comparison overlooks key factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting government stimulus efforts under both Trump and Biden.

In a blog post last December, Director Swagel explained that the unexpected surge in revenue was primarily due to inflation starting in March 2021, which added roughly $900 billion. Increased economic activity in later years added another $700 billion, and new tariffs accounted for about $250 billion. Still, other legislative changes partially offset these gains.